Splintered GOP Seeks Unifying Presence
Candidates Leave Voters Dissatisfied

By Michael D. Shear and David S. Broder
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, December 23, 2007; A01

DES MOINES -- For three decades, the Republican presidential nominating contest has served to unify the national party's coalition of social, economic and foreign policy conservatives in advance of a general election fight with Democrats.

This year, it is ripping that coalition apart.

Is the GOP grounded in the social issues embodied by Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee or the foreign policy experience of former POW John McCain? Do Republicans see their futures in a former CEO such as Mitt Romney, who promises to tackle Washington incompetence, or in a leader such as Rudolph W. Giuliani, who talks tough on terrorism and crime? Should the party embrace anger about immigration or optimism about America's potential?

Among members of Congress, the lobbying shops on K Street and the local GOP committees in Iowa and New Hampshire, Republicans are divided, confused and sometimes demoralized about their choices for president. With less than two weeks left before voting begins, the party's rank and file are being asked to ratify a new direction for the GOP amid the clash of a chaotic and wide-open campaign.

And the party's soul-searching is unfolding in a sour environment: two states where the GOP was walloped by Democrats in 2006, leaving the surviving Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire grappling with an identity crisis of their own. In dozens of interviews last week, many Republicans said they are frustrated.

Scott Weiser, who lobbies the Iowa statehouse for the Iowa Motor Truck Association, said he attended a Republican fundraiser recently where all but one of the lobbyists and business executives were still undecided about who they will support in the presidential contest.

"We walked around the room, and there was just one guy who was committed to someone," said Weiser, who joked that he might go to one of Iowa's top steakhouses rather than attend the Jan. 3 caucuses. "I have never, ever seen anything like this where at least the pros didn't know who they were with."

In New Hampshire, where Republicans took a hit in 2006, GOP state Rep. Fran Wendelboe said she is still looking for someone to support. She is devoting her energy to a local organization -- dubbed the "Reagan Network" -- meant to be an alternative to the state Republican Party, which she and her allies argue has let the party's grass roots wither.

"One day, I'm going to vote for one person, and the next day, I'm going to vote for another person," she explained. "And if that's what it's like for a Republican like me -- who's met all these guys, who's done all the research on these guys -- imagine what the average person is going through.

"Republicans," Wendelboe said, "are all over the place. They're looking for the perfect candidate but just don't have it."

Soul-searching during a presidential campaign is typical for the Democratic Party, which seems to engage in philosophical rethinking every four years. But it is a rarer instance for Republicans, who typically rally around an establishment candidate, a consensus "next-in-line" who would be a shoo-in for the nomination.

That kind of party discipline helped George H.W. Bush win the nomination in 1988, gave a boost to former Kansas senator Robert J. Dole in 1996 and was crucial to George W. Bush's victory in 2000. But finding a successor to President Bush, and a new direction for the party, is proving to be more difficult.

"I'm homeless," said Jack Kemp, a former congressman and housing secretary in President George H.W. Bush's administration and the party's vice presidential nominee in 1996. "There isn't that Reagan sense of optimism, of an inclusionary Republican Party."

"It's about as clear as mud," said Rep. Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.), who has talked to Giuliani and has met with Romney and former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) but remains undecided.

For conservatives, the flaws of each major candidate are just too glaring, GOP lawmakers say.

Giuliani tends to win them on economic issues, but they cannot get by his stand on social issues. They like Huckabee on the social agenda, but do not trust his economic stands. They like the Romney they see now, but they cannot forget the positions he once embraced in Massachusetts. And they dislike McCain's opposition to Bush's first-term tax cuts and his crusade to overhaul campaign finance laws.

"Everybody's looking for Ronald Reagan, and believe me, I knew Ronald Reagan, and he's not here," said Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), who dropped out of the race for the White House on Thursday and gave his support to Romney. "We're seeing the manifestation of frustrations that have been in the Republican ranks for years. Frustration with the president, frustration with Congress, and nobody sees in us a way out."

Huckabee, in particular, is challenging the three-part coalition that Reagan built, but not only because of the unabashed focus on the former Arkansas governor's Christian faith. He is increasingly casting himself as the champion of "the people" against what he calls the "Wall Street-Washington axis." He said this past week that he wants to represent "Boys and Girls Clubs Republicans" not "country-club Republicans."

Many of those Republicans, the types of political professionals who really care about elections because of their impact on commercial prospects, are well aware that their fellow Republicans are not happy with the presidential field.

"I've heard that all year. I've heard it particularly inside the Beltway," said Charles R. Black Jr., a volunteer adviser to McCain's campaign and chairman of the BKSH & Associates lobbying firm. "It's definitely a phenomenon that's out there."

But Black said a lot of that talk is pointless alarmism. "You get to Iowa and New Hampshire," he said. "[People] want an ideal candidate, but there aren't any. I remember Democrats wringing their hands in '92, and look what happened: They got the most popular president in a generation."

For years, the party's nominating contests began in the once reliably Republican states of New Hampshire and Iowa.

But Iowa Republicans failed to regain the governorship, watching Democrat Chet Culver defeat Jim Nussle, who gave up a safe House seat to make a losing race for governor. And, for the first time in 40 years, Republicans lost the majority in the legislature and saw highly regarded Rep. Jim Leach lose his position.

In New Hampshire, it was worse. The Republican candidate for governor drew 26 percent of the vote against Democratic incumbent John Lynch, and straight-ticket voting doomed Republicans up and down the ballot. On a single day, the GOP went from being the dominant party in the state to a bare remnant.

After that election, the state Republican Party abandoned its traditional home on Main Street in Concord, across from the State House, and moved a mile away to a reconditioned private residence behind a drive-in restaurant. Fergus Cullen, who took over as state GOP chairman after the debacle, has installed a new staff.

The chairman of one of the presidential campaigns, a longtime party activist, said, after soliciting a promise of anonymity: "There is no party here anymore. It's just a shell."

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has been at the top of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire for months, but his competitors have been a puzzle to many in the state. In early summer, an aura of expectation was created about Thompson's candidacy, but his initial appearances fell flat. Then Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, upped his television ads and personal appearances, but he has now canceled some events, cut back his ad spending and is no longer making a major effort.

That has allowed McCain, the Arizona senator, to restart the heavy schedule of town meetings and television ads he had curtailed when his campaign ran out of money early in the summer. Huckabee is thought to have a "low ceiling" in New Hampshire, where far fewer of the Republicans identify themselves as evangelical voters than do so in Iowa.

In Iowa, the race has largely narrowed to a two-man contest between Huckabee and Romney, with Thompson doing his best to surprise people with a strong third-place finish. McCain and Giuliani have all but abandoned any retail efforts in the state.

Party officials and strategists for the Iowa presidential candidates predict that about 80,000 people will participate in the party's caucuses, a drop from the 125,000 who participated in 2004. By contrast, some Democratic Party strategists expect to see as many as 150,000 Democrats gather the same night.

"Maybe people haven't found this perfect candidate," said Mary Tiffany, the spokeswoman for the Iowa GOP. "Maybe they like how Huckabee incorporates his faith. Maybe they like Romney's business experience. Maybe they like John McCain and his experience with foreign policy. We don't have this candidate who really is . . . I don't know, who is the perfect candidate."

Broder reported from New Hampshire. Staff writers Jeffrey H. Birnbaum, Jonathan Weisman, Perry Bacon Jr. and Alec MacGillis contributed to this report.