An 8th Term? Tom Davis Silent, but Others Aren't

But years of careful preparation ended when he abruptly pulled out of contention to replace U.S. Sen. John W. Warner (R), who will retire at the end of next year. His decision was based largely on the Republican State Central Committee's vote to hold a convention instead of a primary to select its nominee, a move that gave the advantage to former governor James S. Gilmore III, a more conservative candidate who has announced plans to run. Davis's more moderate stands on taxes and some social issues play well in Democrat-leaning Northern Virginia but less so with the GOP faithful who typically vote at conventions.

"He was extremely disappointed in that decision," said Del. Thomas Davis Rust (R), a friend. "Some people disappointed him. He didn't think it would turn out the way that it did."

Davis is surely under pressure from the GOP to run again, but there are major disincentives. His political acumen was rewarded by House leaders in 2003 when they named him chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. With Democrats in control, however, Davis is now ranking minority member -- not as fun, most observers agree.

The increasingly Democratic lean of the 11th Congressional District may also give Davis pause. Voting patterns in the district, which encompasses the central Fairfax communities of Annandale, Oakton, Vienna and Fairfax City as well as a swath of Prince William County, have veered decidedly left in recent elections, most notably in the crushing defeat last month of Davis's wife, State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis. In 2006, his most recent campaign, Davis won 55 percent of the vote, his smallest margin of victory since 1994.

Still, he is widely viewed as the rare Republican with a shot at winning in the district. House Democrats announced last week that they were targeting 40 GOP seats that they consider vulnerable. Davis was not mentioned.

His name recognition would be hard to match. And he is a proven, prolific fundraiser whose relationships with business and technology leaders would surely give him the financial advantage against most challengers.

To date, Leslie L. Byrne, the one-term congresswoman whom Davis unseated in 1994, and former naval commander Doug Denneny have declared plans to seek the Democratic nomination. Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is often mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate as well, but he hasn't said whether he will run next year.

For the moment, at least, Davis is keeping his own counsel.

"He will spend some quiet time with his family and his wife and kind of come to a decision about what his future's going to be over the next few weeks," said Hyland, the Republican committee chairman.

"That's what I always assumed his time frame would be."