By Amy Gardner
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Will he or won't he?
That's the big question for Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), who is expected to decide in coming weeks whether to seek an eighth term.
Davis, who swept into Congress with the Republican tide of 1994, isn't saying. Friends, colleagues and staff members say they really don't know. But speculation is growing fiercer by the day on blogs and in Northern Virginia political circles as to whether Davis, long viewed as one of the state Republican Party's shining stars, is ready to move on.
"I honestly don't know what he's going to do," said Todd A. Stottlemyer, president of the National Federation of Independent Business and a former chairman of the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce whose relationship with Davis dates to the congressman's days on the Board of Supervisors. "I really do think it's a deeply personal decision for him, and he's having to sort out a lot of things."
Davis certainly isn't slowing down. He held a fundraiser last week at a supporter's home and threw his annual Christmas party at Northern Virginia Community College over the weekend. He is sending out news releases promoting his efforts to secure money for federal raises, transportation improvements and local law enforcement. And he is making speeches and other public appearances, including a moving tribute this week in Vienna for Nghia Van Dong, a constituent and veteran of the Vietnamese Special Forces.
For supporters and party leaders, it is evidence that he is not done with politics.
"He's still our congressman," said Jim Hyland, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Committee. "He's making appearances, and he's working hard. Let's put it this way: We very much hope he's going to run."
Davis isn't talking -- not to the media, not even to his closest backers -- about whether he'll stay or parlay decades of private-sector connections into a lucrative second career.
"He got asked that question at his fundraiser, and his answer was: 'I love this job. I really enjoy doing this job,' " said Del. David B. Albo (R-Fairfax), a longtime supporter. "But he didn't say anything more than that."
Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.) said Davis was offered "a seven-figure job to head a major association" a couple of years ago. "He would probably be one of the most marketable members of Congress on either side of the aisle. He knows everybody, and anybody he doesn't know, they know him. He could be a rainmaker for any corporation, lobbying firm, law firm, whatever."
The speculation comes in part because circumstances have shifted so rapidly for Davis, who did not return phone calls or answer questions at a public appearance this week.
After making his name as an advocate for District home rule and the federal workforce, nurturing the technology and defense contracting industries of Northern Virginia, and leading the National Republican Campaign Committee through two successful elections, Davis has long been assumed to be a natural contender for the U.S. Senate.
But years of careful preparation ended when he abruptly pulled out of contention to replace U.S. Sen. John W. Warner (R), who will retire at the end of next year. His decision was based largely on the Republican State Central Committee's vote to hold a convention instead of a primary to select its nominee, a move that gave the advantage to former governor James S. Gilmore III, a more conservative candidate who has announced plans to run. Davis's more moderate stands on taxes and some social issues play well in Democrat-leaning Northern Virginia but less so with the GOP faithful who typically vote at conventions.
"He was extremely disappointed in that decision," said Del. Thomas Davis Rust (R), a friend. "Some people disappointed him. He didn't think it would turn out the way that it did."
Davis is surely under pressure from the GOP to run again, but there are major disincentives. His political acumen was rewarded by House leaders in 2003 when they named him chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. With Democrats in control, however, Davis is now ranking minority member -- not as fun, most observers agree.
The increasingly Democratic lean of the 11th Congressional District may also give Davis pause. Voting patterns in the district, which encompasses the central Fairfax communities of Annandale, Oakton, Vienna and Fairfax City as well as a swath of Prince William County, have veered decidedly left in recent elections, most notably in the crushing defeat last month of Davis's wife, State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis. In 2006, his most recent campaign, Davis won 55 percent of the vote, his smallest margin of victory since 1994.
Still, he is widely viewed as the rare Republican with a shot at winning in the district. House Democrats announced last week that they were targeting 40 GOP seats that they consider vulnerable. Davis was not mentioned.
His name recognition would be hard to match. And he is a proven, prolific fundraiser whose relationships with business and technology leaders would surely give him the financial advantage against most challengers.
To date, Leslie L. Byrne, the one-term congresswoman whom Davis unseated in 1994, and former naval commander Doug Denneny have declared plans to seek the Democratic nomination. Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is often mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate as well, but he hasn't said whether he will run next year.
For the moment, at least, Davis is keeping his own counsel.
"He will spend some quiet time with his family and his wife and kind of come to a decision about what his future's going to be over the next few weeks," said Hyland, the Republican committee chairman.
"That's what I always assumed his time frame would be."
View all comments that have been posted about this article.