Weathering the Caucuses: For Voters And Candidates, the Outlook Is Variable

Gallery

The Final Stretch Before the Iowa Caucuses

As hosts of the first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, Iowans are known for taking politics seriously in election years. Whether it's debating issues over morning coffee or turning out to see a candidate up close, the people of Iowa revel in their unique role as early vetters of presidential candidates.

» LAUNCH PHOTO GALLERY

Iowa has used a caucus system since it became a state in 1846. There have been some changes in the way the caucuses are run, says Hugh Winebrenner, professor emeritus at Drake University and an expert on the caucuses, but the emphasis has always been on a discussion of the issues and the candidates.

With so few people and so much passion, and with the strange way caucusing works, so many factors can influence the outcome. So many moving parts.

Like the weather.

"Now you're going to jinx it," says Brian Flaherty, chairman of the Johnson County Democrats.

Political observers and activists talk about the weather on caucus night with an Old Testament mixture of reverence and fear. Bad weather can lessen the night's turnout and affect the results, though precisely how is tough to predict. Is the candidate popular with elderly women who also happen to be fearful of slipping on ice? Or popular with caucus newbies who are looking for weather-related excuses to stay inside and watch the Orange Bowl?

It has been speculated, for example, that bad weather could really hurt Mike Huckabee.

It has been speculated, also, that bad weather could really help Mike Huckabee.

Caucus night is a night for spontaneity. Who will show up? Who knows!

"You learn over time," says Ned Chiodo, a lobbyist and former state representative in Des Moines who's been organizing for Hillary Clinton. He's broken Iowans into three groups based on how they caucus.

"There's the sure-sies," he says. They're a sure thing -- they say they're going to show up to caucus for a candidate and they will. There are the maybes, who might show up if you "really put some heat on 'em and remind 'em and make sure you check on 'em and maybe even take 'em."

And then there are the "double agents," Chiodo says. They're the ones who "tell you they're going to go for your candidate and they're not." Waste of time, those double agents.