By Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
DES MOINES, Dec. 31 -- The tense and unpredictable three-way Democratic battle in Iowa got a surprising jolt late Monday when a new poll showed Sen. Barack Obama widening his lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former senator John Edwards.
Other recent polls have shown the race to be a virtual dead heat among the three, and strategists for all three campaigns have stressed the fluid and unpredictable nature of the contest leading up to the state's leadoff caucuses on Thursday.
The Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register showed Obama (Ill.) at 32 percent, up from 28 percent in November. Clinton (N.Y.) was at 25 percent and Edwards (N.C.) at 24 percent, virtually unchanged from November. No other Democrat was above 6 percent.
The new poll gave Obama a critical psychological boost at a time when the focus in Iowa had shifted to Edwards, whose fiery anti-corporate rhetoric appeared to be gaining converts. Clinton, too, had appeared to have steadied herself after a series of stumbles in November and early December.
The Register reported that Obama's support has been bolstered by first-time caucusgoers -- a remarkable 72 percent of his supporters in the poll said that this would be their first caucus -- and by strong backing from independents as well as some Republicans.
Strategists for Clinton and Edwards criticized the poll. The Clinton camp said pollsters overestimated the number of independents and Republicans who will participate in the Democratic caucuses. The Edwards camp suggested that the results may overstate the number of newcomers likely to turn out Thursday night. But Obama's campaign has long said that he has the capacity to bring in substantial numbers of new voters, including independents and Republicans.
One reason for caution is that because of caucus rules, candidates' final percentages can vary significantly from what the polls predict. Four years ago, however, the Register's final survey correctly called the order of finish in the Democratic caucuses.
The Obama campaign's challenge, campaign manager David Plouffe said late Monday, will be to convert the support apparent in the poll into real support on Thursday. If so, he said, "we're headed for a good night." But he added: "A poll is not going to caucus. Therein lies the challenge."
The Register poll found also found that more than half of Clinton's and Edwards's supporters said they would be attending their first caucuses.
The caucuses are particularly difficult to forecast through polls, and the holiday season has added to the problem. Strategists for Edwards sent out an e-mail questioning some aspects of the polling, in the hopes of dampening the impact of the results for Obama. Adding to the volatility of the race, one-third of those surveyed said they could still change their mind before Thursday.
The new poll results came at the end of a busy day of campaigning, during which Obama launched a radio ad that criticized his two rivals by name -- the first of the campaign to do so -- and both he and Clinton took aim at Edwards.
Campaigning in Keokuk on the final day of the year, Clinton appeared to have both Edwards and Obama in mind when she talked about combating special interests. "I submit to you there isn't anybody running who's taken on more special interests and taken on more incoming fire and survived than I have," she said.
She also appeared to mock Edwards's high-octane rhetoric. "It's not something you have to do by yelling and screaming," she said. "Save your energy. Get the job done. Instead of generating a lot of heat, rolling your hands and jumping up and down, sit down and figure out how we're going to beat them."
Edwards's advisers were elated to see Clinton going after their candidate, calling it a sign of her nervousness and of the serious threat the former senator poses to her and to Obama on Thursday.
Obama also fired at Edwards during a rally in Boone on Monday. "Change doesn't come by hollering," he told more than 600 enthusiastic supporters.
Clinton advisers said their analysis of changing terrain in Iowa suggests that Edwards has peeled some male voters away from Obama, but Plouffe insisted that there has been no erosion.
"I reject any premise that we have slipped here at all," he said Sunday afternoon at Obama's headquarters in Des Moines. "We're in a very, very strong position -- growing strength every day. It's just a very close race. But I do think we have reason to be confident."
Obama's advisers convened a conference call with reporters Monday morning with a dual message: The senator is continuing to gain strength in Iowa, regardless of what other campaigns may be saying privately, but that no matter what happens here, Obama is well positioned in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and nearly a dozen states that will hold contests on Feb. 5.
Obama advisers told The Washington Post that campaign workers had knocked on 50,000 doors in Iowa on Saturday and had received commitments from 5,000 more voters. They also offered city-by-city comparisons of the candidates' crowds to argue that Obama continues to generate more energy and excitement than either of the other leading candidates.
Still, a number of Obama's advisers acknowledge that the last days of campaigning in Iowa present challenges that did not exist even 30 or 60 days ago, including attacks by outside groups.
Obama is the target of millions of dollars in advertising and direct mail, much of it negative, from groups allied to Clinton or Edwards. The groups include the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which reportedly has more than 200 workers in the state, and Emily's List -- both of which are backing Clinton, as well as a "527" group run by Edwards's former campaign manager that is supporting the North Carolinian.
"It's one against seven," Plouffe said. "I think it's pretty remarkable that through this blizzard of money we're able to hold our strength."
The three candidates have poured record amounts of money into Iowa over the past year.
Clinton and Obama will have spent $20 million to $25 million each on their campaigns here, according to strategists. Edwards has raised far less nationally and is relying in part on federal matching funds, but he nonetheless could end up having spent $12 million to $15 million in the state.
The money has gone to fund the biggest ground operations ever in Iowa, millions of dollars in TV commercials that began airing last summer and nearly a year of campaigning in the state by all the candidates.
The prodigious spending has swamped the campaigns of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Sens. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut. But the three continue to campaign energetically throughout the state in the final days.
Both Obama and Clinton count more newcomers among their supporters than Edwards, which means if turnout is low, the North Carolinian might be favored. But Obama's advisers say they expect a record turnout, predicting that it will be between 140,000 and 160,000.
Staff writer Anne E. Kornblut contributed to this report.
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