Independent Voters May Give Obama Edge in Iowa

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Obama Revels In New Iowa Poll

The latest poll released by the Des Moines Register shows Barack Obama ahead of the pack. The powerful paper speaks with an authoritative voice that could lift Obama's campaign. Dean Reynolds reports.

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"This is an earnest young man," said Barrick, gesturing to Obama as he shook hands with voters after a recent event in Williamsburg. "I think he's very electable."

At their first campaign events of 2008, Clinton and Edwards gave a nod toward independent voters. Edwards was more explicit, saying that his focus on "corporate greed and corporate power and their iron-fisted grip on our democracy" is roiling not only Democrats but also people across the political spectrum.

"It's doing it to independents. It's doing it to Republicans," Edwards told an overflowing auditorium at Iowa State University. In a none-too-subtle dig at Obama, Edwards said his arguments come from the heart, rather than the head. "Every one of you can tell the difference between somebody giving an academic speech and somebody who's coming from right here," he said, gesturing toward his chest.

David Bonior, the national campaign manager for Edwards, estimated that the overall turnout on caucus night will be 150,000 -- fewer than the 200,000 or so that the Register poll was predicated on. Edwards's advisers have long believed that lower turnout would favor their candidate, making small crowds and even inclement weather a plus, because it would put a cap on the number of new voters who could show up to support Clinton or Obama.

Clinton has built her campaign on a newer model that relies on first-time caucus attendees. "I hope that as the next 48 hours unfolds, those of you who are still deciding, those of you who have never caucused before, decide you have got to be part of taking our country back," she told a large crowd in Ames on Tuesday morning.

In a brief question-and-answer session after her speech, Clinton fielded questions about immigration and then rural farming, both subjects with broad appeal around the state that are as inclined to appeal to independents and Republicans as Democrats.

For the final stretch, Clinton brought her daughter, Chelsea, and her mother, Dorothy Rodham, out onto the campaign trail. She spoke in a low voice, just a notch above a whisper, part of a muted speaking style she has adopted in recent weeks.

Edwards was joined by his wife, Elizabeth, and their children for a 36-hour bus tour across the state that is scheduled to include overnight stops. The candidates converge in Des Moines on Thursday for caucus rallies before flying to New Hampshire.

Among the hard-core Democrats who make up the caucus's traditional attendance, Obama also received a modest boost Tuesday when Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) told his small but loyal following of Iraq war opponents to pick Obama as their second choice. Kucinich, who is drawing about 1 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, according to this week's Register poll, said if he does not clear the 15 percent threshold for viability in individual precincts on Thursday, he will "strongly encourage" his supporters to opt next for Obama, which they may do under the arcane rules governing the caucuses.

In 2004, Kucinich agreed to share support with Edwards, an arrangement that political observers believe may have contributed to the latter's strong second-place finish. This year, his natural ally is Obama, the only other Democrat in the race who opposed the Iraq war before it started.