In Iowa, Obama Wins, Clinton Concedes

Gallery

After an Exhaustive Campaign in Iowa, the Results are In

After months of campaigning in Iowa, the primary election season begins with a Democratic win by Barack Obama and a Republican win by Mike Huckabee.

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"Tonight marks the culmination of an intensive six-week effort to mobilize Democratic women to participate in the Iowa caucuses," wrote Maren Hesla, an EMILY's List operative, in the memo. Hesla details eight different direct mail pieces and seven automated phone calls to a universe of 60,000 Iowa women who had voted in the 2006 midterm elections but had not participated in the 2004 caucuses -- a campaign that cost the group $500,000.

Turnout estimates were all over the place prior to the caucuses. Republicans expected far fewer attendees at their caucuses than the Democrats; eight years ago, roughly 87,000 people gave then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush a 10-point victory over magazine publisher Steve Forbes. A similar -- or slightly lower -- turnout -- is expected tonight.

While the turnout operations were front and center today, massive spending on television ads laid the groundwork in the state for each of these campaigns. In the last month alone, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, $17 million has been spent on more than 20,000 political advertisements. Estimates of total spending for the race are in the neighborhood of $50 million.

For Democrats, that advertising has been entirely positive as none of the major -- or minor -- candidates has attacked any of the others via the airwaves. The concern, exacerbated with three candidates seen as potential winners, is the rebound effect. "In a tight multi-candidate primary, the overriding concern is the ricochet," said Democratic consultant Erik Smith who is unaffiliated in this race. "Each candidate needs to make their strongest possible closing argument, and there is no appetite for the potential unintended consequences of a negative ad this late in a competitive race."

The same has not held true on the Republican side, as Romney has been attacking Huckabee over past stances on hot-button issues such as crime, illegal immigration and government spending for much of the past few weeks.

Huckabee seemed poised to fight back earlier this week, but the former Arkansas governor scrapped a planned neagtive ad campaign despite the fact that he had gathered dozens of reporters to a Des Moines hotel to view the spot. (He showed it anyway.)

Recent history suggests that Iowa voters react negatively to negative attacks. In 2004, former governor Howard Dean (Vt.) and then-Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) savaged one another on television, only to watch Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) and Edwards shoot the gap to claim first and second place.

History also suggest that the winner of tonight's caucuses will be well positioned to wind up as the party's nominee. Of the eight contested Iowa Democratic caucuses since 1972, the winner has gone on to win the nomination five times. The same holds true for Republicans as the winner of three out of the five contested caucuses has become the eventual nominee.