By Dan Zak
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 6, 2008; N01
It's an election year, and we're trying to get ahead of ourselves. No poll or blog is current enough. Even a live feed seems passe. The media are scrambling to pluck today's scoop from tomorrow.
Let's take a s tep back by taking a bigger step forward. Behold the first snippet of coverage of Election 2028. It's a political cycle that could make or break us as a human race, so someone should start reporting on it.
Where will we be in 20 years? The Arctic may be ice-free during the summer. The world population will crack 8 billion. It'll be the 25th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq and the 100th birthday of Mickey Mouse.
And we'll be reaching our "global crisis of maturity," the point at which our world system (or lack thereof) must be transformed to wrangle a more populous, industrialized and inte lligent world facing risks with cataclysmic consequences. So says William Halal, creator of the virtual think tank TechCast ( http://www.techcast.org) and professor emeritus of science, technology and innovation at George Washington University.
"These dilemmas of environment and globalization and conflict are going to reach crisis proportions by 2030," Halal says, "but the power to resolve these existential issues is going to appear at roughly that same time. The increase in knowledge, the awareness of the need for a shift in global consciousness, the high technology -- all that stuff will be in place."
In 20 years we will be on the brink of catastrophe and have the means to
prevent it. So as a service to ourselves, our children and our children's children, we scoured the region for six people under presidential age (35) who could conceivably navigate the path to a White House run in 20 years. We asked futurists and academics to forecast what issues they would have to lead us through and then asked the potential candidates to start pondering.
"A lot of issues important to me and my demographic, they just don't enter into the debates," says Patrick Tucker, 31, senior editor of the Futurist magazine for the World Future Society in Bethesda. Young people are "marketed to -- and to a certain extent exploited for our gullibility -- but because we are a small cohort compared to the baby boomers, we get less out of the discussion. Everyone wants to seize the mantle of youth, but no one wants to deal with issues the youth will be facing."
Those issues may include the economic fallout from climate change, the regulation of artificial intelligence and genomic manipulation, the influence of up-to-the-second political polling, a reverse migration of young people to other countries and even the dissolution of the United States.
"This is the great challenge to the system: How do we bring back the long-term thinking?" asks technology forecaster Paul Saffo, who lives in Silicon Valley. "How do you reward people in the present for thinking three generations ahead? How do we learn to become good ancestors?"
Here, we present this challenge to our candidates and get to know them in advance. Think of this experiment as one small step toward a more perfect union.
EUGENE RESNICK, 19, CharlottesvilleSophomore at the University of Virginia, president of College Democrats of Virginia
It could be a first on many fronts. Eugene Resnick, the first Jewish president. Eugene Resnick, the first openly gay president. Eugene Resnick, the first immigrant president (his family moved to Brooklyn, N.Y., from Moscow when he was 4). These identities were soldered together in the crucible of the 2004 presidential election -- which he followed intently -- to create the man Resnick is today.
What question are you looking forward to Larry King asking you in 2028?
"So, how will you go about amending the Constitution so that you can actually be president of the United States?"
Yeah, about that: You're a politically active American who can't become president because you weren't born here .
By 2028, I'll have been living here for about 35 years. By that point our country will have progressed so much in terms of multiculturalism and integrating immigrants into society that I think it would probably be out of the Constitution.
What's your most notable characteristic?
A combination of ambition and energy.
Your favorite song to drive to?
Bob Sinclair's "World, Hold On."
If a film was made about your life, what would its title be and who would play you?
"Ocean Parkway Memoirs," named after the street I lived on for 14 years in Brooklyn. I'm told I resemble Joaquin Phoenix minus the lip.
Describe your political and social leanings.
I am pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, strongly pro-stem cell research and support stricter gun laws. I am socially liberal and fiscally pragmatic.
What issues should people be paying more attention to?
Gun control and the culture of violence, [gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender] rights, persistence of racism when considering affirmative action.
What will your 2028 campaign slogan be?
"Bright Future Ahead for All of Us."
The abortion issue may pale in comparison to the looming genomic debate (using DNA to "improve" or manipulate embryos). How would you regulate this manipulation?
There need to be boundaries set so we don't go off on the road to eugenics. Instead of improving embryos for physical or superficial reasons, we should eradicate genes that cause cancer, diabetes or physical disabilities.
What idea seems good today but might be toxic in 20 years?
Abolishing the electoral college may seem like a great idea now . . . yet having national primaries and a national general election may result in most states being ignored at the expense of highly populated states.
In 2028 we'll probably face the same political gridlock as today, but with graver problems. How can we spark the global collaboration that is needed to solve these issues?
Politicians need to remember why they are in office. . . . When you forget the people you serve, you forget what the point of your title as a senator or congressperson is. Once we have this sort of universal idea of public service, then we can collaborate and work toward a better future for ourselves and generations to come.
If you had your entire generation as a captive audience, what would you say to them?
Don't sit back and let the future pass us by. Our time is now. . . . We are the future of a more egalitarian nation, and we must vote at the ballot box now to make it happen.
TOM MANATOS, 28, Glen EchoAdviser to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
Manatos's blood is rich in executiveness. His father worked for Jimmy Carter, and his father's father, a Senate liaison for Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, was the first Greek American to work in the White House. A native of Montgomery County, Manatos took time off from his communications studies at Cornell in 2000 to be the second-youngest paid staffer at Gore-Lieberman headquarters in Nashville. He started working with Pelosi (D-Calif.) as an intern shortly after she became minority whip and has been with her since. In July he'll cross party lines to marry a former staffer for George W. Bush.
What is your greatest weakness?
Having to remind myself that a Redskins win or loss should not affect my mood.
Your greatest fears?
Global warming and the growth of world terrorism.
Your most notable characteristic?
The majority opinion of my grandmothers, mother, father and fiancee (with dissenting opinions from my brothers and abstaining opinions of my sister-in-law) is that I am perfect.
What trait do you most value in others?
Honesty.
What natural gift would you most like to possess?
Fashion sense.
What movie could you watch over and over again?
"The Patriot" with Mel Gibson.
Are you religious or spiritual?
I am Greek Orthodox and devoted to it. Although my faith is important to me, I am deeply concerned about any political leader who believes that God is directing him or her toward a decision.
What issues should people be paying more attention to?
Energy independence will help the world battle climate change and other environmental issues. If Americans paid more attention to creating alternative energy, we could be investing our resources in our own country instead of the Middle East.
What will be the main issues of Campaign 2028?
Energy independence and the education of our citizens to keep up with developing technology. Stronger and more violent natural disasters and rising coastal waters will be a major drain on the economy and a threat to all communities.
What will your campaign slogan be?
It definitely won't be "Vote for Tom, He's the Bomb," my winning campaign slogan for senior class president in high school.
What idea seems good today but might be toxic in 20 years?
The highly partisan politics that include attack ads and negative campaigning has only led to a more-divided country and ineffective government. It may be winning campaigns for majorities and presidential races, but it is injuring the country in the long term. The bipartisan compromises of the '50s, '60s, '70s and part of the '80s may not have won more races, but they benefited the country more as a whole and led to more progress.
If you had your entire generation as a captive audience, what would you say to them?
I would tell them to become more engaged in their government and communities by voting, volunteering or becoming an activist on an issue that is important to them.
IVORY TOLDSON, 34, D.C.Professor at Howard University
His grandfathers were activist ministers and his mother, who picked cotton as a child in the South, was a champion for black reparations. Toldson, raised in Baton Rouge, La., inherited their pride and conviction. He received a doctorate in counseling psychology at Temple University after doing a year's worth of evaluations at the U.S. penitentiary in Atlanta, where his office was right on the cellblock. He followed his father into academia and drew on life experiences to publish the 2004 novel "Black Sheep" under his Nigerian middle name, Achebe.
What is your most notable characteristic?
Many have noted that I have a disarming personality and a unique ability to build trust and confidence in others.
What trait do you most value in others?
I value those who seek and teach truth and use wisdom to help others and improve communities.
What is your idea of earthly happiness?
At present, it's holding my 5-month-old daughter on a couch in front of a large window, with my wife stroking the back of my head.
What issues should people be paying more attention to?
Jobs that offer livable wages. Health care and pensions are disappearing, even as corporations rake in record profits. CEO salaries and packages continue to balloon as the average worker salary becomes more insignificant. As more schools become subject to legal sanctions for failing to meet [No Child Left Behind] mandates, the financial and capacity gap between urban and suburban school districts will become more critical.
How do you envision the world in 20 years?
The world will be more steeped into an economy that is based less on the physical production of goods and more on the creation and manipulation of information. Individual lives will be less compartmentalized, and work life, family life and social life will have less-perceptible differences.
What will your campaign slogan be?
"Master Your Fate in '28!"
What idea seems good today but might be toxic in 20 years?
The Gang Abatement and Prevention Act. Making membership in a gang a federal crime will, in effect, accomplish the same thing that making crack dealing a federal crime did in the '80s: explode the nonviolent black male inmate population while doing nothing about the actual problems in the community.
Some forecast a reverse migration to such countries as China and India, which have faster-growing job opportunities. What effect will this have on the country, and should anything be done to combat it?
China and India's strength comes from their huge population and noninterventionist policies. However, the wealth is slow to reach the masses, and poverty remains high. . . . I do not think we will have mass expatriation to China and India. People like democracy and the freedom associated with it.
If you had your entire generation as a captive audience, what would you say to them?
We have to accept failing without becoming a failure and losing without being a loser. Leaving school doesn't make you a dropout, and breaking a law doesn't make you a criminal, and cheating doesn't make you a cheater. We make mistakes, but mistakes don't make us!
NATASHA DUPEE, 17, D.C.Student government president at the School Without Walls in the District
A high school senior, Dupee has already amassed the kind of diplomatic credentials presidential candidates try to fudge. Born and raised in Southeast Washington, she served as a leadership ambassador to youth summits in England and South Africa. She has worked for Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) and plans to become a neonatologist. One of her "small-scale" goals is to run for D.C. mayor. And the large scale? A seat in Congress. An ambassadorship. And given her premature fluency in politics, a White House bid in 20 years seems far from fantasy.
How do you envision the world in 20 years?
Hopefully there will be a greater dependence on renewable energy sources. There will be more peace internationally yet heightened tension domestically when the corruption of this current set of legislators is exposed after they have died or left office. The concern of finding fresh drinking water will be in the process of being resolved.
Which living person do you most admire and why?
Mishonda Baldwin [2006 candidate for Congress in Maryland and a veteran of the Persian Gulf War]. She's passionate about life and still trying to make a change. She has talked about seeing friends die in combat and how they're still shaping her life.
Are you religious or spiritual?
I am a Baptist Christian and a very active member of the Brookland Union Baptist Church in Northeast D.C.
Describe your political and social leanings.
I maintain very liberal views on a lot of issues. I am thankful for Congress's legislative power over the District to the extent that they can expand our budget and provide in-state tuition rates and breaks for residents that attend [historically black colleges] and public universities. Yet I am unsettled about their ability to tax D.C. residents and control how and when the allocated funds are spent.
What issues should people be paying more attention to?
Teenage rights and how legislation affects our future.
In 2028 we'll probably face the same political gridlock as today, but with graver problems. How can we spark the global collaboration that is needed to solve these issues?
What I recognized from working internationally is America is one of the only countries where there are career politicians. If we can break down that barrier of being voted in by legacy, then there will be more change. If we changed some of the term limits so that younger and more diverse perspectives could be added into politics, then it would be a different ballgame.
If you had your entire generation as a captive audience, what would you say to them?
I would advocate them to travel internationally, be confident and positive in the choices they make, contemplate the influence that they will have and lean toward recycling concrete and abstract substances (from plastics to innovative ideas).
JOELLE CANNON, 25, AlexandriaPolicy director for the Senate Republican Steering Committee
Remember the uproar over Hillary Clinton's $1 million earmark for a Woodstock museum? Cannon helped raise the red flag that brought it national attention in October. After moving to Washington from Joplin, Mo., five years ago, Cannon fast-tracked her way through rank-and-filedom to the Senate Republican Conference, in which she developed a reputation on the Hill for being a budgetary hotshot. She created the Pork Report, a one-page document highlighting wasteful earmarks, and starts a new job this week with the steering committee.
What is your idea of earthly happiness?
Nine hours of sleep a night and an endless supply of ice cream.
Which living person do you most admire?
I am a big fan of Billy Graham. He has been so consistent over the years and has an amazing compassion for those around him.
Is there an experience that has defined your life?
I grew up in a low-income family and was raised by a single mother who at one point was working three jobs. Watching her work so hard and then go back to school taught me a lot about the value of a strong work ethic and the true meaning of a dollar.
If a film was made about your life, what would its title be and who would play you?
"Small-Town Sophisticate." I should probably pick a brunette, like Liv Tyler, but truth be told, I always wanted to be a blonde (I hear they have more fun). So maybe we should just aim high and go with Cameron Diaz.
Describe your political and social leanings.
I am a social and economic conservative. I think the role of the federal government should be extremely limited, federal taxes and spending should both be significantly lowered, and the government should stick to protecting individual liberty and private property rights and defending our national interests.
What issues should people be paying more attention to?
Federal spending and taxes, health-care reform and judicial nominations.
What idea seems good today but might be toxic in 20 years?
Although the increasing number of federal environmental regulations may seem necessary right now, they could potentially hinder economic growth in our country by hurting U.S.-based companies and driving jobs overseas.
Which member of the Bush or Clinton dynasties do you expect to run against?
If I'm lucky, it will be Roger Clinton.
In 2030 there will be three Americans of working age for every person older than 65, compared with a 5-to-1 ratio today. People between 17 and 34 will be working longer without the pension benefits our parents might have had. Can we avoid this scenario?
Any generational conflict that might arise over this issue can be completely avoided by reforming the entitlement programs and reducing federal spending. As the working population shrinks, it will be incumbent upon elected officials to ensure that every dollar e ntrusted to the government by taxpayers is used wisely and efficiently.
If you had your entire generation as a captive audience, what would you say to them?
Put your families first, and if you want to retire at 65, start saving now. Don't count on Social Security to be there for you when you get old.
LUCKY NARAIN, 28, YorktownNonprofit grant writer
An Army reservist, registered Republican, former Peace Corps volunteer and product of Virginia public schools, Lucky Narain has a jump on our other potential candidates: He ran as an independent in a special congressional election last month in Virginia's 1st District, which stretches from Fauquier County to Yorktown. After a vigorous campaign, he snagged less than 2 percent of the vote but makes a promise: "There will definitely be a next time."
Why run against established political machines?
Because of the dissatisfaction the public has of legislators in D.C. and the apathy most young voters feel. I'd like to combat that. I think the only way to get the younger generation excited about government is to be there and do it and show them that young people can get involved.
Your favorite song to drive to?
"Back Where I Come From" by Kenny Chesney.
Your favorite things to do outside of work or school?
Draw and paint.
Which living person do you most admire and why?
Bill Gates, because he is a visionary and has a practical understanding of what could be in the future. He is an individual who through his own means and business acumen rose to the top and turned his eyes on benefiting mankind.
Describe your political and social leanings.
I believe in the power of the individual. . . . We should never forget that the federal government was designed to be one of limited powers.
What issues should people be paying more attention to?
Education, bridging the digital divide, the environment, medical research (the fight against cancer) and care of the elderly and of military veterans.
How do you envision the world in 20 years?
China will be a bigger concern than it is today (in all respects). The labor in China is going to rebel more than they are now for higher salaries, which will result in higher prices for Chinese-made products. This will result in the prices for Chinese goods being almost as expensive as [the goods cost] to produce domestically.
What are your thoughts on the Iraq war, and where do you see the region in 20 years?
No matter the motivations that led us into the war in Iraq, we are there, and it is up to us to make the most of it. . . . I would hope that our relationship with Iraq in 20 years is not one based on our dependence on oil.
If you had your entire generation as a captive audience, what would you say to them?
Never settle. When we're kids our parents always tell us, "You can do anything you want." But somewhere around our teen years we stop believing and start accepting status quo. I refuse to accept status quo. Not achieving our potential as individuals collectively means that we are not realizing our potential as a nation.
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