By Jennifer Agiesta and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Do the outcomes of the Iowa caucuses offer clues to what will happen in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary? A look at the "entrance poll" taken Thursday night in the Hawkeye State offered five things to watch for next week:
1 Independents matter.
Independents were a small but powerful force in the caucuses of both parties, and an even higher percentage will vote in New Hampshire.
On the Democratic side, independents made up 20 percent of caucusgoers and contributed heavily to Sen. Barack Obama's victory margin. Independents made up 13 percent of the GOP voters in Iowa and boosted Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) into the double digits.
In 2000, the last time both parties held contested primaries in New Hampshire, about four in 10 voters called themselves independents. McCain won the GOP primary that year by prevailing among independents, while Republicans went for George W. Bush.
Unaffiliated voters in New Hampshire can choose to participate in either party's primary, and the fortunes of Obama and McCain may hinge on which way independents break. Washington Post-ABC News polling last month found that more than six in 10 of the state's independents planned to vote in the Democratic primary.
2 New Hampshire Democrats want change, too.
In Iowa, "change" was a key factor in the Democratic caucuses, and a majority of likely New Hampshire primary voters also think that a new direction and new ideas are more important in a candidate than strength and experience, according to the December Post-ABC News poll.
Obama (Ill.) dominated his rivals among "change voters," garnering the support of 51 percent in this group. Former senator John Edwards (N.C.) got 20 percent and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) received 19 percent.
3 Evang elicals in New
Hampshire?
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's win in the GOP Iowa caucuses was powered by evangelical voters, who preferred him over his rivals by better than a 2 to 1 ratio. But there are far fewer evangelical Christians in New Hampshire.
Among non-evangelicals, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney prevailed, winning 33 percent of their votes, compared with 18 percent for McCain, 17 percent for former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.), 14 percent for Huckabee and 11 percent for Paul.
Granite State GOP voters are also more socially liberal than their Hawkeye counterparts: Fifty-two percent in last month's poll said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while in Iowa just 23 percent thought so.
In Iowa, GOP voters sought a candidate who reflected their worldview: Forty-five percent said their top interest is in a candidate who "shares my values," and more than a third said it matters "a great deal" that candidates share their religious beliefs. Huckabee won in both groups.
But New Hampshire's voters could be looking for something different. In the 2000 primary exit poll, 55 percent of GOP voters said presidential candidates' religious beliefs were a matter better kept private.
4 Young voters.
Judging by the entrance poll, this year's Democratic caucuses appeared a lot as they were predicted to look in 2004, when former Vermont governor Howard Dean's orange-capped field staffers tried to inspire young Iowans to caucus. Nearly a quarter of the Iowa voters on Thursday were younger than 30, with Obama picking up the biggest share of their support.
Nearly two-thirds of young voters in Iowa focused on change, and 13 percent on experience.
(In 2004, 14 percent of the Democratic electorate in New Hampshire was younger than 30. That was the only age group to go for Dean, and only by a single percentage point over Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the eventual nominee.)
In both Post-ABC and University of New Hampshire polling, Obama has run about evenly with Clinton among voters ages 18 to 49.
5 Do issues make a difference?
In Iowa, the sharpest divisions among caucusgoers were on candidate qualities -- change on the Democratic side, values among Republicans -- rather than on policy matters.
Obama had advantages among those whose top issue is the war in Iraq, the economy and health care, but his lead on each paled next to his bulging 30-plus-point lead among "change voters." Clinton had a whopping lead among those focused on experience, but there were fewer of them compared with those wanting change.
A similar pattern emerged on the GOP side. While Republicans gave Huckabee an edge on several issues, none was as big as his margin among those seeking a candidate aligned with their values.
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