Obama's Rise Dismays Clinton's Supporters

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These new voters have none of the bonds with the Clintons that were formed in 1992 and strengthened over the years when Bill Clinton was president.

The new residents tend to be well-educated professionals -- the kind of voters Obama does best with -- and many of them are political independents. Obama racked up big margins with independent voters in Iowa, and they are expected to make up an even greater share of the Democratic electorate on Tuesday. New Hampshire is also significantly younger on average than Iowa, playing to another of Obama's strengths.

Ted and April Weismann are part of New Hampshire's demographic shift. They moved to Brookline in 1999 from the Boston area partly for more affordable real estate, and they have seen many other young families follow them. They say that they, like many of their peers, are supporting Obama.

"A lot of the old-time New Hampshire people are being replaced by people from across the border, and he's the right candidate to win them," said Ted Weismann, who works in public relations. "It's a sea change."

Obama's pre-Iowa rise was also aided by the organization he has built here. As in Iowa, his campaign has reached out to new voters in unconventional ways. It organized a statewide three-on-three basketball tournament (players needed to agree to volunteer, and 160 took part), book clubs to discuss Obama's memoir, and a network of small voter groups defined by professions or common interests.

Volunteers on the state's 10 campuses got fellow students to file absentee ballots if they were going to be away on winter break Tuesday. And the campaign now has several thousand volunteers from outside the state, many of them college students, for the final push.

"Iowa has given us a shot in the arm and is making undecided voters take a look at Obama," said Jim Demers, a Concord lobbyist advising Obama's state campaign. "But our plan was always to go out and win votes."

The Clinton campaign here is countering with a solid organization and plenty of out-of-state help of its own, including a strike force of 200 volunteers sent north by Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino.

Yet there is palpable disbelief among top Clinton supporters here that she should be facing a tight finish in a state that was once seen as Clinton turf, and against a candidate with as thin a Washington r¿sum¿ as Obama's.

Asked why the race here was so close, Terie Norelli, speaker of the New Hampshire House, declined to answer, instead repeating that Clinton is the "best prepared," thanks to her "35 years of experience."

Mary Louise Hancock, the 87-year-old grande dame of the state's Democrats, said she "resented" that independent voters were poised to influence the outcome of the Democratic primary, saying it turned the vote into a "personal-liking affair" dominated by "students and the trendies."

Senate President Sylvia B. Larsen came closest to acknowledging the threat. While she held out hope that Clinton could hold on here, Larsen also made the case that a loss would not be fatal.

"She's so well organized in the other states, like Ohio," Larsen said. "She's ready to go on, even if she comes in second here."