8 Questions New Hampshire Could Answer

Party strategists believe a McCain victory here would set the stage for a much longer GOP battle. Michigan could become a decisive contest between Mitt Romney and McCain. Mike Huckabee, who placed first in Iowa, is pointing to South Carolina for his second win. Rudolph W. Giuliani has been banking on Florida so long that he's become a resident. And as one of Fred Thompson's advisers put it (hopefully) before Iowa, "Chaos is our friend."

3. Will a McCain victory knock Romney out of the race?

Romney would be in an even more difficult situation than Clinton. His entire strategy, devised a year ago, has been based on winning Iowa and New Hampshire in order to build momentum heading toward Feb. 5.

So he'll keep going. But a loss to McCain today would mean he'd have blown tens of millions of dollars on what turned out to be a failed strategy, with just one option left to keep his candidacy alive: victory in Michigan on Jan. 15.

Michigan is home for Romney. He grew up there, and his father, George, was governor in the 1960s. But McCain won the state against George W. Bush in 2000, and Huckabee should have support among religious conservatives in the western part of the state.

To win Michigan, Romney may have to spend the family fortune. He's shown a willingness all along to dig deep into his own pockets to secure the nomination, but this could make the savvy businessman think twice.

"Romney has the financial resources to compete through Super Tuesday," said Republican strategist Scott Reed. "But he will lose confidence by Florida if he has not scored a win."

4. Will a surge in independents help Obama or McCain?

Both will benefit from independents, but the betting in New Hampshire is that independents will be drawn to Obama far more than to McCain. The senator from Arizona was their darling in 2000, and he siphoned off some potential support for Bill Bradley against Al Gore.

But McCain 2008 is not McCain 2000. He may rattle his party's establishment, but his identification as a leading supporter of President Bush's war policy makes him seem less the maverick than he was eight years ago.

Independents in New Hampshire shifted decisively to the Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections, in large part because of opposition to the Iraq war. They are likely to stay parked there for now -- and Obama's candidacy seems tailor-made for them.

As a result, he stands to gain most. As Mark Mellman,