Kenya at the Brink

A president and his challenger can strike a deal -- or condemn their country to chaos.

AFRICAN AND Western leaders have been working overtime to pull Kenya back from the brink of political chaos and communal slaughter. Their urgency is understandable: The East African nation of 32 million was looking like a model of emerging democracy and prosperity before its disputed election of Dec. 27. President Mwai Kibaki, who won a free election five years ago, was trailing in the presidential vote and the early counts, even as his party was trounced in parliamentary voting. Then, with reports of irregularities mounting, he prematurely declared victory and had himself sworn in for a new term -- touching off rioting that has killed more than 500 people.

Since then, numerous luminaries have tried to persuade Mr. Kibaki and his principal opponent, Raila Odinga, to strike a political deal; much of the violence has involved fighting between Mr. Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe and the Luo tribe of Mr. Odinga. On Tuesday, the president of Ghana and chairman of the African Union, John Kufuor, arrived in Nairobi in the hope of brokering some kind of bargain. Four retired African presidents and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer also have been in the capital. Even Sen. Barack Obama, whose father was Kenyan, made an effort, taking a break from his New Hampshire campaign on Monday to call Mr. Odinga. While everyone has stressed the need for the Kenyan leaders to devise their own solution, Ms. Frazer hinted at some crucial elements. In particular, Kenya needs more sharing of power and resources among political branches and regions, something that would require constitutional reforms.

The outside suasion seemed to be working at first; Mr. Kibaki invited Mr. Odinga for talks and hinted at power-sharing. Then, just before the arrival of Mr. Kufuor, the president once again acted preemptively, naming a partial cabinet of 17 ministers, most of them allies from his party -- and none from Mr. Odinga's party. The violence, which had been subsiding, promptly surged again.

The would-be peacemakers are still trying. Under American prodding, Mr. Kibaki said yesterday he was open to appointing some of Mr. Odinga's allies to his cabinet. Still, the president seems determined to entrench himself in power, even if doing so means inciting more attacks against members of his Kikuyu tribe, which has suffered the most so far. Despite the urgings of Mr. Obama and others, Mr. Odinga has continued to insist on conditions for beginning negotiations. Most Kenyans appear to share the sentiment of the foreign leaders: They want to stop the violence before it gets any worse. The president and his challenger can respond -- or they can wreck their country.