Romney Homes In on a Message That Will Stick

Mitt Romney, shown campaigning Monday in New Hampshire, faces a crucial test in his native Michigan, where he is expected to pitch his corporate skills in a state with a flagging economy. (By Preston Keres -- The Washington Post)
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Yesterday, Romney flew to Michigan, where he was raised and his father once served as governor. The campaign has pulled its television ads in South Carolina and Florida to focus on Michigan, where advisers say he will make another attempt to secure what he calls "the gold medal." Aides say he will continue to emphasize the need to change Washington, but with a focus on Michigan's economic plight.

In a memo to supporters from senior strategist Alex Gage, the campaign argued that Romney's second-place finishes in both states puts him in a good position to eventually capture the nomination. "Gov. Romney actually beat John McCain among Republicans" on Tuesday, 35 percent to 34 percent, Gage wrote, "and most of the upcoming primaries and caucuses attract an electorate far more Republican than New Hampshire's."

But it may be too late. In Michigan, Romney faces both Huckabee, who is expected to do well among religious voters in western part of the state, and McCain, who won the state in 2000 and is riding a wave of good press from his stunning come-from-behind victory in New Hampshire. If Romney loses to one of them in Michigan, even some of his most loyal aides concede that his presidential campaign may be over.

That would be a dramatic end to a quest that has had the most money and the most meticulous organization of any Republican candidate. Yesterday, the campaign raised $5 million more in a single, national call-day event.

That Romney finds himself in a do-or-die race in Michigan was unimaginable as recently as last summer, as his focus on winning early-voting states seemed to being paying off. Polling put him at the head of the pack in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with his lead in the former seen as nearly impregnable.

In October, Romney began to spend far more time on the stump detailing his r¿sum¿ and presenting himself as the most competent to lead among the Republican field. His trademark PowerPoint presentation -- a remnant of his years in the private sector -- re-emerged as he made a more granular argument to voters about why he should win the nomination.

Romney insiders said a changing cast of opponents in Iowa and New Hampshire also complicated his attempt to settle on a closing message. Initially, Romney's campaign was preparing for a one-on-one race in Iowa against former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.); in New Hampshire, there was an expectation they would face off against former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

"Over the last year, things have been changing on a daily basis," a Romney fundraiser said, speaking on the condition that he not be identified. "McCain was the primary opponent a year ago. He dipped. Romney kept climbing. Then it was Rudy. Now he's dipped. And then came Huckabee. It's been like a moving target."

Advisers said Romney's rivals and the media relentlessly forced him to spend time defending his conservative credentials on illegal immigration, taxes, strengthening the military and his devotion to family values.

"The message was always going to be 'the turnaround guy.' That's the name of the book. But not just play him as a turnaround guy, because then you're Michael Dukakis, a bloodless technocrat. He's more than that," said one of his top consultants. "We had been distracted answering questions about whether the Bible was the literal word of God."

Romney was repeatedly forced to discuss the issue of his Mormon faith. Coverage of his speech about religious liberty in College Station, Tex., dominated the news for a week -- a development the campaign saw as positive, but one that also diverted attention away from the candidate's other messages.

Even as late as the night of the Iowa caucuses, the lingering doubts regarding Romney's faith surfaced. At one precinct caucus, Romney's designated advocate -- a longtime Republican activist from the area -- rose and gave his pitch for his candidate. He finished, sat down and the man next to him asked: "Are you a Mormon or a Christian? You can't be both."

Romney did not get back to the turnaround theme until after last week's shocker in Iowa, when he suddenly tossed aside efforts to portray himself as the campaign's true conservative and embraced a new message of "change" in Washington.

While "change" was touted as Romney's new and improved message, it was, one senior strategist pointed out, a return to an idea that had first appeared in the campaign's ads all the way back in the spring.

In one ad, which ran in Iowa, Romney says "we have an opportunity to really make a change in this country," adding: "I've brought change to every institution I've touched. I am going to work like crazy to go to Washington and bring change there."

"To hear them act like change is a new, exciting thing that Romney is talking about is just galling," said one senior Romney campaign strategist.

Staff writers Matthew Mosk and Juliet Eilperin contributed to this report.