Who's Backing Whom?

WITH PRIMARIES NEAR, AREA POLITICIANS PICK SIDES. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT MATTERS.

The Maryland Women for Hillary Council lists more than 130 civic and political leaders who are endorsing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential candidacy, from Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski to Ann Castaldi, the "Former First Lady of Greenbelt," as she is described on the campaign Web site. Clinton (D-N.Y.) also has the backing of Gov. Martin O'Malley and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown.

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) is a Sen. John McCain man. Former Maryland governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. likes former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani for the GOP nomination. Some of Virginia's top Democratic names -- Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, Richmond mayor and former governor L. Douglas Wilder and Rep. Robert C. Scott -- have lined up for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, as has D.C. Mayor Adrian M. Fenty.

With less than a month before the Feb. 12 primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District -- contests that could have an impact on who wins the nomination in both parties -- many of the region's top elected officials have picked their horses.

The question is: So what?

The recent history of presidential politics is replete with marquee endorsements that had little apparent effect on voters. Then-Sen. Al Gore (D-Tenn.) entered the 1988 Virginia Democratic primary on Super Tuesday with the backing of former governor Charles S. Robb and then-Virginia Attorney General Mary Sue Terry. He finished second behind Jesse Jackson. Gore's own 2004 testimonial, just four years after winning the presidential popular vote, did little to boost former Vermont governor Howard Dean's insurgent campaign for the Democratic nomination.

"Endorsements are highly overrated," said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University. "Very few voters go into the voting booth determined to support a candidate because he or she got an endorsement from some prominent politician or celebrity."

Still, candidates collect them like baseball cards, if only to generate a news cycle's worth of headlines and chatter on the blogs. Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry's endorsement of Obama on Thursday probably falls into that category.

There are exceptions that make some endorsements more valuable. Sitting governors can offer ready access to funds and organizational muscle. Then-Gov. James S. Gilmore III was credited with helping George W. Bush beat McCain in the 2000 Virginia primary. Gilmore, also a national co-chairman of Bush's campaign, was rewarded with chairmanship of the Republican National Committee.

O'Malley, elected in 2006, has a statewide network of donors and volunteers, although his popularity is sagging since a bruising legislative session in which taxes were raised by $1.4 billion a year. Through his fundraising network, Fenty, a de facto governor, has netted about $700,000 for Obama.

Kaine has become a key part of Obama's Virginia effort. Kaine's popularity -- he had a 63 percent approval rating in an October Washington Post poll -- helped Democrats take control of the state Senate last fall and will lift Obama, supporters say.

"The governor has organizational strength in Virginia, which we have seen in recent elections," said Charlie Kelly, political director of Kaine's political action committee, Moving Virginia Forward. "If you couple that with the energy and enthusiasm of Obama's campaign, it makes for a very powerful ground effort."

Although 23 states will hold primaries or caucuses Feb. 5, the fluid nature of both the Republican and Democratic races could, for the first time in memory, turn Maryland, Virginia and the District into bona fide battlegrounds Feb. 12.