President Non Grata

The newly revived McCain will have to tread carefully, maintaining his image of independence to hold his moderate base while reaching out to conservatives in states where middle-of-the-road voters play a modest role in Republican primaries.

Romney, needing a victory today in Michigan to remain competitive, abruptly shifted from an image of himself as the new embodiment of Ronald Reagan to a nostalgic appeal to the memory of his late father, George Romney, a liberal who would be out of step with today's GOP.

Huckabee hopes he will draw enough support from evangelical Christians to win in South Carolina, while Giuliani is betting everything on a strong showing at the end of the month in Florida.

In a Republican Party more unsettled and disheartened than at any point in the modern era, it is almost certain that the contest will take another unexpected turn. Tony Fabrizio, an experienced Republican pollster, suggested in an interview just how peculiar the year could get.

Should the ultra-maverick Huckabee -- rather than Romney, Thompson or Giuliani -- emerge as the main alternative to McCain, it is likely that Republican leaders would reluctantly rally to a man so many of them have resisted. "Only Mike Huckabee could turn John McCain into the establishment candidate," Fabrizio said.

This is the politics the Bush presidency has wrought.

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