By Lisa de Moraes
Thursday, January 17, 2008

Chris Daughtry looks like some kind of "American Idol" soothsayer for having forecast, right before Tuesday's seventh-season debut, that the show was in a state of decline, only to have the debut numbers come out yesterday showing its ratings had . . . declined!

Also looking crazy-prescient is the former head of NBC Entertainment, who, a year ago, told trade publication TV Week: "Nothing burns that bright forever. Some day it will be uncool to watch 'American Idol.' "

Sadly for Kevin Reilly, he's now head of the Fox network's entertainment division.

The seventh-season debut of Fox's reality hit clocked 33.4 million viewers.

That's 4 million viewers shy of last season's unveiling. But, on the bright side if you're a Fox suit, it's about 6 million more people than watched ABC, NBC, CBS and CW combined Tuesday night from 8 to 10. Last year's "Idol" kickoff bagged nearly 9 million more viewers than the combined broadcast competition.

Tuesday's "Idol" start was about 2 million shy of 2006's 35.5 million, and kind of on par with 2005's 33.5 million, especially now that DVR penetration is high enough that the more relevant figure for the two-hour debut will be Nielsen's Live+7 figure -- the average number of viewers who watched the show within a week of its broadcast -- which won't be available until around the end of this month.

Most worrisome for Fox: This year's opener churned out the smallest rating among teens since the show's initial run in the summer of '02. Meanwhile, it snagged the second best rating, behind only last year's debut, among viewers 50 and older.

On the eve of this week's "Idol" debut, Daughtry -- who sprang from his car-dealership job into the public consciousness during the competition series's fifth season, after being turned down to compete in "Rock Star: INXS" -- gave an interview to Rolling Stone in which he said the show was "definitely lacking some credibility at this point."

He added for good measure: "It's in a state of decline, and if they don't do something about it, it's probably not gonna last too much longer."

It's true, you know -- Tuesday's episode copped only about 10 times as many people as have purchased Daughtry's CD.

* * *

The president and CEO of the Recording Academy came out swinging for the group's 50th anniversary Grammy Awards telecast, which is waiting to find out whether the Writers Guild of America will declare it a "struck" show.

Neil Portnow noted in a prepared statement that the interim agreement proposed by this particular trophy show's producer offers "the same terms as those arrangements signed by the WGA with David Letterman's company, Worldwide Pants." Letterman's "Late Show," like the Grammy show, airs on CBS.

Worldwide Pants signed an interim deal with the WGA that allows both CBS late-night shows it produces -- Letterman's and the show hosted by Craig Ferguson -- to return to the air with their writers and without pickets. Their shows are the only late-night programs that have returned with the WGA's blessing.

But the Writers Guild had said it was inclined to deny the Grammys a waiver should it receive a request for one -- though it had, at press time, made no announcement since the Grammy-cast production house, John Cossette Productions, formally asked for a waiver.

Portnow also noted that the Grammy telecast employs two WGA members, compared with 250 members of the American Federation of Musicians and 150 members of the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists.

And, at virtually the same time Portnow's people were e-mailing his statement to reporters on Tuesday, both the AFM and AFTRA organizations were e-mailing their statements of support to the Recording Academy and the Grammy-cast. Coincidence?

"In light of the news that the producer of the Grammy Awards has made a firm offer to the WGA, AFM and AFTRA strongly urge all of our members to support the important work of the Recording Academy by participating in the Grammy events," the two labor organizations said in their statement.

To cap things off, Portnow, in his statement, threw in some stuff about how the proceeds from the Grammy Awards show fund a "whole variety of worthwhile programs," including the academy's MusiCares Foundation, "which literally saves lives and offers millions of dollars of aid to music people in need," as well as Grammy Foundation programs "to advance the importance and role of music and the arts in our schools and in society."

Yup, they're doing it for the children.