In ACC, It's Only At the Top

It is not unusual for the ACC to be rated as the nation's strongest college basketball conference, as is the case this season, and to be dominated by two North Carolina schools wearing different shades of blue. But the conference usually also features a handful of other schools capable of making runs in the NCAA tournament.

This year, the conference might not even have a handful of other teams make the tournament.

One year after the ACC had seven teams reach the NCAA tournament, there is no guarantee the conference will earn more than three bids when invitations are handed out two months from now. Impressive starts by the league's top two teams, North Carolina and Duke, coupled with disappointing starts by a few presumed contenders have created a unique dynamic in the ACC, which includes several schools still struggling to find consistency.

"There have been teams [in the past] that have found itself at different points of the season -- early, late, all the way leading up to the conference tournament," Virginia Coach Dave Leitao said. "Then there are times when teams never get it together. Every coach goes through that."

The erratic seasons of several of the teams in the middle of the pack in the ACC has created mediocrity early in the conference season, which is reflected in the polls and the Ratings Percentage Index, the mathematical formula the tournament selection committee considers to help determine berths and seeds.

Among the six power conferences, the ACC is the only one with fewer than three teams ranked in the top 30 of the RPI. By comparison, the ACC has as many teams in the top 30 (North Carolina and Duke) as the West Coast Conference and two fewer than the Atlantic 10.

Top-ranked North Carolina and seventh-ranked Duke are also well-regarded in the Associated Press top 25, but only two other ACC schools, 21st-ranked Miami and 24th-ranked Clemson, received even a vote in this week's poll. The ACC, however, remains the top-rated conference in the RPI largely because none of its 12 teams has struggled too much. The ACC team with the worst RPI is Maryland, which ranks 111th. Every other conference in the country has at least one school with a worse RPI.

"Every team in the league is a scary team to play," Clemson Coach Oliver Purnell said. "I think that speaks to the parity in the league. You look at some of the scores, all the teams are scary."

But aside from North Carolina and Duke, the only other ACC school that has positioned itself to make the tournament is Clemson, which is 14-3 but only eight days removed from a surprising 10-point home loss to Charlotte. That few other teams have emerged as tournament worthy can be partly attributed to the fact that some of the teams expected to finish in the top half of the standings have struggled to varying degrees.

Because of a combination of youth, injury and offensive futility, Maryland has been one of the biggest disappointments in the ACC. The Terrapins (11-7) lost consecutive home games to Ohio and American and nearly lost early-season games against Northeastern and Hampton. Maryland's chances of earning an at-large tournament berth appear extremely slim.

Injury-depleted North Carolina State (11-5) has failed to capture the magic of last March, when the Wolfpack made a dramatic run to the ACC tournament final. The Wolfpack lost to New Orleans and East Carolina early in the season and dropped its first two conference games, including a 31-point loss to North Carolina.

Virginia retains reasonable hope of reaching the NCAA tournament with a strong conference record, but the Cavaliers have lost three straight. Between Jan. 3 and 10, Virginia lost to Xavier and Duke by a combined 60 points.

Despite those wide margins, Purnell feels the teams that will begin to distinguish themselves will be the ones that consistently find a way to win tight games in the ACC.

"Every now and then, there will be a game where you might get away from someone," said Purnell, whose Tigers played into overtime games in their first two conference games. "By and large, they are going to be close. You need to win 80 percent of those to have a successful ACC season."

Even the success of some of the more surprising teams in the ACC needs to be tempered to some degree. Miami, predicted to finish last in the conference in the media poll, is 14-2, but suffered its first loss to a middling Winthrop team Dec. 29. Florida State has started 12-6, but the Seminoles suffered early-season losses to South Florida and Cleveland State.

At 3-0 in the ACC, Boston College (12-4) has emerged as a potential NCAA tournament team. But earlier this month, the Eagles lost to Kansas by 25 points and scored just 51 points in a loss to Robert Morris.

Because of the lack of depth in the ACC, the question has already been raised whether surging North Carolina could finish the regular season unbeaten. Coach Roy Williams has dismissed the notion, and some of his colleagues also caution that more than two-thirds of the conference season remains.

"It's very early," Georgia Tech Coach Paul Hewitt said. "You don't know what injuries can happen. To even entertain the thought of an undefeated season right now is very premature."