The Real Story In New Hampshire

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) at a post-primary rally in Manchester, N.H. (By Neal Hamberg -- Bloomberg News)

Many factors were behind the shift to Clinton: There were the much-discussed moments in which Clinton expressed vulnerability and doubt -- her answers to the debate question about her likeability and the question in the Portsmouth coffee shop about the strain of the campaign. John Edwards, Chris Matthews and even Obama seemed to gang up on her in the final days.

Another factor, much less reported, is that the Clinton campaign sent out a mailer a few days before the primary portraying Obama as a less-than-solid supporter of abortion rights. Consider also that Clinton's support came largely from lower-middle-class families, who are routinely underpolled. Samples are weighted to account for that, but that technique does not always work.

Even two days before the primary, nearly half of Democratic voters remained undecided. Many of them told pollsters they were "leaning" toward a candidate, but they had not made up their minds. Obama had more "leaners" than Clinton, somewhat inflating his numbers. In the last day or so, women "leaners" broke from Obama and the other male candidates and joined undecided women in voting for Clinton in big numbers.

Whatever the polls said, some well-informed New Hampshire Democrats privately predicted that Clinton would win or come close. They picked up what the polls did not -- that many Democratic women really wanted to vote for Clinton but felt it was their duty as informed voters to check out all the candidates. Those informed Democrats also said Clinton had an operational advantage that could bump her final numbers. Clinton's operation did a masterful job getting her supporters to the polls. That probably accounted for some of her large margin of victory in New Hampshire's two largest cities.

All of the evidence points to one conclusion: Large numbers of women, many of whom wanted in their guts to vote for Clinton, looked closely at Obama, Edwards and Richardson, then decided late to vote for Clinton, either because she was a woman or because, as many said, they thought she was the best candidate. That, not race, is the story of her surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary.

Andrew Cline is editorial page editor of theNew Hampshire Union Leader.