Watch It, Democrats. You Could Still Slip Up.

By no means am I suggesting that yet another Democratic heartbreaker is foreordained. The underlying trends that favor the Democrats could still prove decisive. The extraordinary turnout in the early Democratic contests may well herald a stunning increase in the fall of underrepresented voters eager for change. With Obama or Clinton on the ballot (and, in the end, perhaps both), electricity will be in the air, and historical precedents may be a poor guide to the outcome. Clinton and Obama are gifted campaigners, likely to endure the rigors of a punishingly long race better than the 71-year-old McCain. And an "issue environment" dominated by the economy would likely put the foreign-affairs-oriented McCain at a disadvantage. The Republican nomination fight could be even more protracted and bloody than the Democratic one.

But I'd still rather be cautious than cocky about our chances -- particularly if New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg decides to run. Only in Manhattan would he ever have been considered a Republican, and his message of social tolerance, fiscal discipline and managerial competence is more likely to hurt Democrats than Republicans.

All of which leaves 2008 looking like an uncertain gamble, rather than the sure thing that so many Democrats were anticipating last year. According to every indicator of trends in public opinion, fundraising and the economy, this should be a Democratic moment. But a referendum on racism and sexism in the spring does not seem like a prelude to victory in the fall. Keeping the election focused on the manifest failures of conservative Republican leadership is the only way the Democrats can grasp the opportunity at hand.

starr@princeton.edu

Paul Starr is co-editor of the American Prospect and a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University. His most recent book is "Freedom's Power."