Candidates Face Big Primaries With Smaller War Chests

"I would assume smart campaigns already made pretty good investments in one or another early states," Mehlman said. "They probably have a pretty good sense of the voter profile they're going after."

Designing a strategy for what amounts to a national campaign has consumed top campaign strategists in both parties over the past several weeks.

Obama and Clinton have increasingly devoted attention to attracting support from "permanent" absentee voters in California. Mail-in voters are expected to make up about 35 percent of the Feb. 5 electorate there, and they began receiving their ballots Jan. 7.

Both candidates have undertaken what California political strategists call "chase campaigns," because they attempt to time voter contact to the arrival of absentee ballots in mailboxes.

"You're literally chasing the ballot," said Matthew Klink, a California campaign strategist who is not affiliated with a presidential candidate. "Once the registrar mails the absentee ballot, you have direct mail hit at the same time, you follow up direct mail with a phone call and personal visit. Then you can get paid phone banking to remind people to turn in their ballots."

Campaigns can actively monitor which mail-in voters have submitted ballots, further winnowing down the field of voters to target, Klink said.

Ace Smith, who is running Clinton's California effort, said the campaign has already put out more than 400,000 calls to absentees. He said the campaign has used surveys and polls to determine the most likely voters among about 1.4 million absentee Democrats. "We're chasing the ballots as best as possible," he said.

Clinton and Obama have also begun to court a broader audience in California. Obama was the first to launch television ads there, airing a spot in the San Francisco Bay area. Clinton's campaign put up her first California television ad on Thursday.

Former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.), who faces a tighter budget for Feb. 5, slipped in quick campaign stops over the past few days in California, Missouri, Oklahoma and Georgia. His campaign may be forced to rely heavily on a coalition of 12 state councils of the Service Employees International Union. They have said they will mobilize the more than 750,000 SEIU members in those states and will spend more than $1.5 million on communication and voter turnout.

How candidates ultimately make use of television may be the most critical aspect of campaigning for the Super Tuesday contests.

Advertising in California alone is "a hugely costly enterprise," said Don Sipple, a Republican media consultant in the state. He said to simply air ads in the Los Angeles market, where about 45 percent of the state's population gets its broadcast television, could run $4.5 million per week.

Sipple predicted that few candidates will invest the money there, opting for buys on cable and in smaller markets. "You have to be much more sophisticated and much more targeted. You can actually target by Zip code on cable television," Sipple said.

In states such as California, where candidates in both parties can pick up delegates by winning in a single congressional district, the smart money will be spent only on ads that reach viewers where candidates have the chance to run strongly. Republicans, for instance, may spend in the San Diego media market, which is less expensive than Los Angeles.

While national advertising has become a relic in the eyes of presidential strategists who have become skilled at targeting ads to specific local audiences, the scope of the Feb. 5 contests may revive some form of national ad campaign, said Ken Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin professor who studies campaign advertising.

Obama's decision to launch national cable ads on CNN and MSNBC yesterday, which is relatively cheap, is a perfect example, Goldstein said.

"The economics make it cheaper," Goldstein said.

Evan Tracey, who is chief operating officer of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, said it is unlikely any candidate will buy time on the national TV networks, even with 22 states in the mix. The only possible exception, Tracey said, is the Super Bowl, which will be played two days before the mega-primary; it has the largest viewership of any annual event and the potential to generate a huge secondary blast of free media attention.

"It's a Hail Mary maneuver, but this is a very unusual year, and coming two days before Super Tuesday, the timing has never been more ideal," Tracey said. "You might see a candidate calculate that the money would be better spent there than sprinkling their message on spots in several different states. It's something that could shake up a race, through creativity or emotional impact."

He also noted that the Super Bowl teams -- the New York Giants and the New England Patriots -- hail from states holding contests on Feb. 5, so viewership in New York and Massachusetts is likely to be particularly high.

Fox Vice President Lou D'Ermilio said that no candidate has contacted the network about a coveted spot in the Super Bowl lineup and that only one 30-second slot remains unclaimed. "That doesn't mean they can't buy locally during the game, which is probably more likely," he said.

Consultants to two Republican candidates said their media teams have discussed such a gamble, but would not allow their candidates to be mentioned in connection with the discussions, which took place during confidential strategy sessions.

But many decisions on spending will not come until after Republican candidates battle it out in Florida, according to Phil Musser, a GOP consultant who has advised Romney.

"No one can afford to make investments today in states that are three moves down the chessboard," Musser said.