By Matthew Mosk
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 22, 2008; A08

With their campaign treasuries running on empty and only weeks to attract support in the nearly two dozen states that will cast ballots on Feb. 5, candidates for president are scrambling to find creative and unorthodox ways to grab the attention of voters with the funds they have remaining.

At least two of the 2008 presidential contenders, seeking bang for their buck, have privately discussed bypassing a barrage of targeted local ads in favor of buying a spot with potentially more impact to run during the Feb. 3 Super Bowl broadcast, at a cost of about $2.7 million. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) yesterday became the first to make a nationwide cable television advertising buy, and several candidates were devoting resources to new methods of targeting absentee voters.

None of the campaigns has decided yet to take the Super Bowl gamble, but it is one of scores of spending possibilities presidential campaign strategists are considering as they approach the biggest day ever of primary voting.

The Republican field faces one additional challenge: the presence of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. He is increasingly relying on his own fortune to fund his campaign and could ultimately invest as much as $50 million in his bid for the GOP nomination.

Even those who are expected to have plenty of money will be stretched thin; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Obama each raised more than $100 million last year but have spent it at a furious rate. The Democratic front-runners both broke away from campaigning in advance of last Saturday's Nevada caucuses to attend fundraisers in California.

Democrats will hold contests in 22 states and one territory, with 1,681 delegates at stake. Republicans have scheduled contests in 21 states for Feb. 5, known as Super Tuesday, with 975 delegates at stake. Voters in early-voting states experienced a blizzard of commercials and mailboxes jammed with literature, but those living in delegate-rich California might reach Election Day with little contact from the presidential candidates.

Romney could be the exception. He has told supporters he will supplement individual donations with a sizable investment from his personal fortune. He lent his campaign $17 million from January to September of 2007, and some in his camp say they expect him to spend $40 million to $50 million on his effort to secure the nomination.

Tom Stemberg, a Romney donor and longtime supporter, said most people close to the candidate assume a shortfall in fundraising will not be what ends his quest. "I think it's the one thing you can count on," Stemberg said.

One top adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said the candidate recognizes that he will face a big financial disadvantage coming out of Florida's primary on Jan. 29.

"Romney has enormous resources to apply," the adviser said, speaking about internal campaign planning on the condition that he not be named. "While he may be able to compete everywhere, we've been hashing out a sort of hierarchy that looks tactically at where we choose to spend money."

McCain aides said that instead of relying on ads, he will schedule as many appearances as possible on national television shows, and he will try to capitalize on the momentum he earned from winning last Saturday's South Carolina primary.

Ken Mehlman, who helped plan President Bush's reelection strategy four years ago, said each campaign is trying to isolate demographic groups and geographic areas to target with phone calls and mail.

"I would assume smart campaigns already made pretty good investments in one or another early states," Mehlman said. "They probably have a pretty good sense of the voter profile they're going after."

Designing a strategy for what amounts to a national campaign has consumed top campaign strategists in both parties over the past several weeks.

Obama and Clinton have increasingly devoted attention to attracting support from "permanent" absentee voters in California. Mail-in voters are expected to make up about 35 percent of the Feb. 5 electorate there, and they began receiving their ballots Jan. 7.

Both candidates have undertaken what California political strategists call "chase campaigns," because they attempt to time voter contact to the arrival of absentee ballots in mailboxes.

"You're literally chasing the ballot," said Matthew Klink, a California campaign strategist who is not affiliated with a presidential candidate. "Once the registrar mails the absentee ballot, you have direct mail hit at the same time, you follow up direct mail with a phone call and personal visit. Then you can get paid phone banking to remind people to turn in their ballots."

Campaigns can actively monitor which mail-in voters have submitted ballots, further winnowing down the field of voters to target, Klink said.

Ace Smith, who is running Clinton's California effort, said the campaign has already put out more than 400,000 calls to absentees. He said the campaign has used surveys and polls to determine the most likely voters among about 1.4 million absentee Democrats. "We're chasing the ballots as best as possible," he said.

Clinton and Obama have also begun to court a broader audience in California. Obama was the first to launch television ads there, airing a spot in the San Francisco Bay area. Clinton's campaign put up her first California television ad on Thursday.

Former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.), who faces a tighter budget for Feb. 5, slipped in quick campaign stops over the past few days in California, Missouri, Oklahoma and Georgia. His campaign may be forced to rely heavily on a coalition of 12 state councils of the Service Employees International Union. They have said they will mobilize the more than 750,000 SEIU members in those states and will spend more than $1.5 million on communication and voter turnout.

How candidates ultimately make use of television may be the most critical aspect of campaigning for the Super Tuesday contests.

Advertising in California alone is "a hugely costly enterprise," said Don Sipple, a Republican media consultant in the state. He said to simply air ads in the Los Angeles market, where about 45 percent of the state's population gets its broadcast television, could run $4.5 million per week.

Sipple predicted that few candidates will invest the money there, opting for buys on cable and in smaller markets. "You have to be much more sophisticated and much more targeted. You can actually target by Zip code on cable television," Sipple said.

In states such as California, where candidates in both parties can pick up delegates by winning in a single congressional district, the smart money will be spent only on ads that reach viewers where candidates have the chance to run strongly. Republicans, for instance, may spend in the San Diego media market, which is less expensive than Los Angeles.

While national advertising has become a relic in the eyes of presidential strategists who have become skilled at targeting ads to specific local audiences, the scope of the Feb. 5 contests may revive some form of national ad campaign, said Ken Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin professor who studies campaign advertising.

Obama's decision to launch national cable ads on CNN and MSNBC yesterday, which is relatively cheap, is a perfect example, Goldstein said.

"The economics make it cheaper," Goldstein said.

Evan Tracey, who is chief operating officer of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, said it is unlikely any candidate will buy time on the national TV networks, even with 22 states in the mix. The only possible exception, Tracey said, is the Super Bowl, which will be played two days before the mega-primary; it has the largest viewership of any annual event and the potential to generate a huge secondary blast of free media attention.

"It's a Hail Mary maneuver, but this is a very unusual year, and coming two days before Super Tuesday, the timing has never been more ideal," Tracey said. "You might see a candidate calculate that the money would be better spent there than sprinkling their message on spots in several different states. It's something that could shake up a race, through creativity or emotional impact."

He also noted that the Super Bowl teams -- the New York Giants and the New England Patriots -- hail from states holding contests on Feb. 5, so viewership in New York and Massachusetts is likely to be particularly high.

Fox Vice President Lou D'Ermilio said that no candidate has contacted the network about a coveted spot in the Super Bowl lineup and that only one 30-second slot remains unclaimed. "That doesn't mean they can't buy locally during the game, which is probably more likely," he said.

Consultants to two Republican candidates said their media teams have discussed such a gamble, but would not allow their candidates to be mentioned in connection with the discussions, which took place during confidential strategy sessions.

But many decisions on spending will not come until after Republican candidates battle it out in Florida, according to Phil Musser, a GOP consultant who has advised Romney.

"No one can afford to make investments today in states that are three moves down the chessboard," Musser said.