Supporters at Home and Abroad Backing Away From Musharraf

Frustration is growing among Musharraf's military and political allies partly because he is not listening to their advice, U.S. and Pakistani analysts said. "He's locked in his own bubble that 'l'etat, c'est moi' -- the state is me. He doesn't understand how anti-democratic he is. He's not thinking clearly anymore," said the senior congressional official.

The Bush administration is still backing Musharraf, even as officials speak more frequently of working with "the Pakistani people," instead of "the Pakistani leader." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Thursday met Musharraf on the outskirts of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in the highest-level contact since he declared emergency rule in November.

Rice pressed him to ensure that the vote is free and fair and that the Pakistani people have confidence in the results, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

Such remarks suggest that the administration is discounting the new assessments on Musharraf from intelligence and congressional officials.

"You're going to get all kinds of people saying he's done for," said a senior administration official. "No one can make that prediction at this point. . . . He's moved into a new job. He will have to work with a new prime minister and they'll have to work out the responsibilities. And they will have to lead in a country without many leaders."

But the divide is increasingly deep in Washington. "U.S. policy is not being made by anyone who understands Pakistan. . . . Musharraf is a walking corpse," the congressional official said.

Pakistani analysts agree that, with his popularity plummeting and electoral prospects dwindling, Musharraf is confronted with nothing but hard choices. His popularity is so low that if he and his party allies in the Pakistan Muslim League-Q win the elections, he will be accused of rigging the vote. If he loses and opponents take control of parliament, he faces the risk of impeachment.

Looking for a way out, Musharraf and his allies are searching for partners to join an interim national unity government that could take office soon and postpone elections for perhaps a year, according to political analysts and the local news media. In their view, Musharraf could use the delay to rehabilitate his image among Pakistani voters.

Some analysts say Musharraf's electoral prospects are not as grim as they seem, arguing that he has strong backing among key feudal families with big voting blocs in central Punjab province, which has about 55 percent of the seats in the country's 342-seat National Assembly and is pivotal to any party's hope of winning power.

If no party gets a clear majority on Feb. 18 and the seats are split among the dominant three political factions, it is anybody's guess as to what will happen.

The Pakistan People's Party, which was led by former prime minister Benazir Bhutto until her assassination last month, has reportedly turned down an offer to join an interim unity government.

Still, the lure of power could prove decisive.

"It's been 12 long years that the PPP has been out of power," said Mushahid Hussein, secretary general of Musharraf's party. "They are not going to blow it by rocking the boat."

Wright reported from Washington. Correspondent Griff Witte in Islamabad contributed to this report.