Romney, McCain Take Lead in Fla.; Tax Talk Pervades

Campaigning in Sarasota on Wednesday, Romney continued the back and forth by mocking McCain's recent admission that he is not an economic expert. "I won't need a briefing on how the economy works," Romney said.

Giuliani faces his rivals in this make-or-break state not as the powerful national front-runner he once was, as his standing evaporated while he largely took a pass on most of the early presidential contests.

A new Field poll in California, which votes Feb. 5, shows a dynamic similar to Florida's, with Giuliani at 11 percent, down from 25 percent a month ago. McCain led the poll with 22 percent, and Romney was second with 18 percent.

To try to recover in Florida, Giuliani has seized on an issue critical to voters: the creation of a national catastrophic insurance fund. In a new online ad, he argues that such a fund would "fix the insurance mess." The fund is being pushed by the insurance industry as a way of backstopping its losses during major natural disasters.

Giuliani also persuaded members of Congress to introduce tax-cut legislation that he said is based on his campaign proposals. Rep. David Dreier (R-Calif.), a longtime Giuliani supporter, introduced the legislation Wednesday. In an interview, Dreier said the Republican debate over taxes will loom "huge" in the Florida primary because of "economic uncertainty . . . and the huge volatility in the market."

Asked Wednesday why his poll numbers are going down, Giuliani expressed optimism: "People realize that I'm the one who is supporting the national catastrophic fund. I've offered the largest tax cut and the biggest stimulus to the economy, and I've had the most experience. I believe we're going to win here."

But he has several significant challenges. One is his support for abortion rights in a state where Republicans have consistently nominated candidates opposed to them. But strategists here have said that, in a multi-candidate field, Giuliani's views may not hurt him as much.

A second factor is geography. Giuliani's strongest support is in South Florida, home to many retirees from the Northeast. But the Miami area will provide fewer than one-fifth of the votes on Tuesday. He is in greater competition in the corridor between Orlando and Tampa-St. Petersburg, which will produce slightly more than half of the vote next week.

"He's not where the fish are," said one Florida strategist, who offered candid analysis on the condition of anonymity.

Giuliani is also at a financial disadvantage, particularly against Romney, who can tap his personal fortune and has made a major television buy in the Miami area, according to one strategist. Giuliani may regret having spent more than $2 million on television ads in New Hampshire -- where he finished fourth with 9 percent of the vote -- rather than saving the money for a final-week barrage in Florida.

Staff writer Juliet Eilperin in Orlando and polling director Jon Cohen in Washington contributed to this report.