Long Lines at College Gates

"We're delighted," said Jack Blackburn, dean of admission at U-Va. "Everyone thought when we dropped early admission we would drop in total applications."

It's not just the most prestigious schools that are hearing from more students: McDaniel College's early applications were up 11 percent this year, Catholic University is expecting another dramatic increase and the University of Maryland is up 17 percent. Marymount and George Washington universities have numbers similar to last year's.

This is the most unpredictable year, said private college counselor Nina Marks, formerly assistant head and director of college guidance at the National Cathedral School. She's telling clients that wait lists are much more likely to be a factor.

It can be agonizing for families, she said. "I wish it weren't as drawn out a process," she said. "It extends the whole admission cycle. It can go to August. That's really hard."

As colleges try, in various ways, to manage the uncertainty, said Hawkins, the admissions expert, students and parents are trying to hedge their bets.

Not only are they applying to lots of schools, but more students are also sending in commitment letters and deposits to more than one school, he said, and more are playing financial aid offers against each other.

All of which makes the process a little crazier.

"We're having a big powwow next week with some predictors, prognosticators and statisticians," Blackburn, the U-Va. official, said. And he expects to use the wait list more this year.

At Hopkins, officials said much the same. "I know there are students in my applicant pool who last year would have been admitted early-decision to Princeton or to Harvard," said John Latting, dean of undergraduate admissions. Typically, about a third of the students the school admits enroll; this year, who knows?

At Georgetown last week, students sat hunched over a table in a basement mailroom sorting through a stack of application letters several feet high.

"When I first started here, we received maybe about 5,000 applications," said Deidre Small, the manager of data entry, who has worked at Georgetown for 30 years. Last year the school had about 16,000 applications. This year it has gotten about 18,700.

Early applications to Georgetown shot up from about 4,500 to roughly 6,000 this fall. "Part of that group applied early-action so they would be safe and have the stress removed," Deacon said. "A lot didn't get in, so they're even more stressed. Now they're waiting till April" to find out whether they have been accepted anywhere.