In Illinois, Super Tuesday Will Be Even Bigger

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Sunday, January 27, 2008

For months, Feb. 5 has been circled on the calendars of political junkies across the country. With 24 states voting for presidential nominees that day, it will be the equivalent of a national primary -- the first such event in recent political history.

While most of the states that rushed to move their presidential votes to early February kept their congressional primaries scheduled later in the year, Illinois decided to hold all of its elections at once -- meaning that not only will native son Barack Obama be on the ballot a week from Tuesday, a host of key congressional primaries will also be decided.

Here's a look at what is at stake in Illinois:

¿ 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Daniel Lipinski ascended to this Chicago-area seat -- held by his father, William, for more than two decades -- in 2004, in a classic example of party insiders flexing their muscles. (The elder Lipinski won his party's nomination that year, then announced his retirement less than two weeks before the deadline to replace a candidate who withdraws; he put forward his son, who was nominated with no opposition.) Lawyer Mark Pera is challenging the close connection between the Lipinskis and has become a darling of the liberal Net roots. Still, the race is a long shot for the challenger.

¿ 8th District: Wealthy businessman and former minor-league hockey player Steve Greenberg is touted as a blue-chip recruit by national Republicans. Assuming he gets through the primary, Greenberg will face Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in November in a GOP-leaning district that she has held since 2005.

¿ 10th District: Democrat Dan Seals, who came within six points of knocking off Rep. Mark Steven Kirk (R) in 2006 in this affluent district north of Chicago, is back for a second run, facing former Clinton administration official Jay Footlik in next week's primary. Seals has won the endorsement of Illinois Sen. Richard J. Durbin and is the heavy favorite, despite the fact Footlik has been well financed.

¿ 14th District: The resignation of former House speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R) has set off a special election to replace him, a contest that is among the nastiest in the country. In the GOP primary race, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis is bashing state Sen. Chris Lauzen for accepting contributions (later returned) from a company that was sued over a series of sexual harassment claims; Lauzen is pushing back, casting Oberweis's ad as a "cruel, politically motivated lie." Hastert has endorsed Oberweis, but the race is up in the air. Scientist Bill Foster is the likely Democratic nominee. The primary winners will face each other in a special election on March 8.

¿ 18th District: Youthful state Rep. Aaron Schock -- he's 26! -- is the favorite to win the three-way Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Ray LaHood (R) in this downstate district. Democrats have struggled to find a top-tier recruit, so if Schock wins the primary nod, he will be favored to claim the seat in November.

An Insider's View of Florida

Polling in advance of Florida's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday suggests a two-way race between former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).

Jim Greer thinks the polls are wrong.

"The race is still very fluid," said Greer, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party, in an interview with The Fix late last week. "Florida voters have embraced the idea of being independent. This is still a three- or four-man race."

Greer's words are music to the ears of former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has cast Florida as a do-or-die contest for his presidential bid, even as polling shows him running a relatively distant third.

"Whereas polls may show he is no longer a player in the race, events and rallies don't support those polls," Greer said of Giuliani. He added that the former mayor has been "more focused on Florida than other candidates."

Asked to handicap the rest of the Republican field, Greer offered these nuggets:

¿ McCain is "reenergized and focused" in the state after his campaign's near-death experience over the summer. "The people with McCain never left him," even in those dark days, Greer added.

¿ Romney boasts a "well-organized ground game" and is concentrating his efforts in the final days of the race on courting the conservative base of the GOP.

¿ Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has a "segment of the party that is very committed to his candidacy," Greer said. He added, however, that the question for Huckabee is: "Does he have the money to play in Florida?"

Greer, a close confidant of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R), has a lot riding on an orderly primary come Tuesday. He is a leading candidate to be the next chairman of the Republican National Committee, and in a recent interview, he suggested that the possibility intrigues him.

"You never say never," he said. "The party does need a lot of new energy and a lot of new ideas."

11 DAYS: The annual gathering of the Conservative Political Action Committee opens in Washington. Will conservatives have a nominee to praise or bad-mouth by the time the curtain rises?

33 DAYS: Sen. James Webb of Virginia will serve as the keynote speaker of the Colorado Democratic Party's 75th annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Assuming the Democratic nominee is chosen by then, Webb's speech could serve as an audition for vice president.