By Bill Turque and John Wagner
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, January 28, 2008
The Washington region's history in presidential primary politics is found mainly in the footnotes.
It was 1988 before Virginia departed from its tradition of caucuses and mass meetings to hold primaries. Maryland might be best known as a state that Democrat George Wallace won in 1972 after he was shot at a Laurel shopping center by Arthur Bremer.
District Democrats, looking to call attention to the city's lack of congressional representation, held their 2004 primary in mid-January, ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire. But the results were nonbinding, and few of the top candidates were on the ballot.
This year, for the first time, the District, Maryland and Virginia hope to accomplish collectively what they have been unable to separately: become players in the selection of Democratic and Republican nominees. On Feb. 12, 1.5 million to 2 million voters could turn out to award 358 delegates (239 Democratic and 119 Republican) to candidates in what amounts to the Potomac Primary.
"Voters in these jurisdictions are going to have a chance to be very influential in terms of delegates," said Terry Lierman, former chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party. "The road to the White House runs through the mid-Atlantic primary."
This afternoon, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is scheduled to speak at a rally at American University. Former president Bill Clinton is expected to appear tonight at a fundraiser on behalf of his wife at the home of a Chevy Chase supporter.
States routinely jockey for more prominent positions on the primary calendar, and it's more than a matter of regional vanity or bragging rights. Hotly contested, high-turnout primaries enable state parties to expand their voter lists and better assess the mood of the electorate heading into November.
Maryland's primaries had traditionally come too late to have much impact. It was Lierman, now chief of staff to House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), who angled early last year to get the state legislature to move up the March 4 contest.
Super Tuesday, on Feb. 5, was an alternative. But, Lierman said, given all the larger states in play that day, Maryland probably would still get lost in the shuffle. Lawmakers settled on Feb. 12, and Lierman then approached Virginia and District leaders about leveraging the region's potential relevance by setting a unified date.
The District initially planned to hold its 2008 primary earlier than 2004's, on Jan. 8. Lierman enlisted D.C. Council Chairman Vincent C. Gray (D) and council member Jack Evans (D-Ward 2), who sponsored legislation shifting it to Feb. 12. Virginia, which had decided on Feb. 12 but was contemplating an earlier date, elected to stay put, Lierman said.
With no other states holding primaries or caucuses that day, leaders in both parties are looking forward to their states playing an unprecedented role.
"Virginia could be the nail in someone's coffin," said Del. Christopher B. Saxman (R-Staunton), state co-chairman for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Or not. For the moment, the influence that the Feb. 12 contests might exert is anyone's guess.
"After New Hampshire, nobody in their right mind should predict anything," said Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, referring to the dramatic Jan. 8 primary victory of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), which took pollsters and pundits by surprise.
One reason for the uncertainty is Super Tuesday, when Democrats in 22 states and one territory will award 52 percent of all pledged delegates, chosen with the understanding that they will vote for the candidate they are assigned to. The GOP will hold 21 primaries with 975 delegates at stake, or 41 percent of the total available.
Some party leaders suspect that with so many primaries, Super Tuesday is bound to produce a decisive result, once again rendering the region a political afterthought.
"My blunt assessment is that Maryland is probably not going to play an important role," said former governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R), mid-Atlantic chairman for the campaign of former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R).
Other party officials, however, said the results of the Democratic contest Saturday in South Carolina bolster the notion that the mid-Atlantic states could be relevant.
Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Michael E. Cryor predicted yesterday that Democratic turnout in his state would top 1 million Feb. 12, shattering the previous primary record of 592,000 in 1976.
Activity in the region has been mostly small-scale and below the radar. Campaigns in both parties have been diverting almost every available nickel and warm body to such battlegrounds as South Carolina and Florida and to Super Tuesday states.
"Candidly, in this region, we are not seeing a whole lot," said Fairfax County Republican Committee Chairman James Hyland.
For the most part, until the morning of Feb. 6, the level of action will probably remain at grass-roots organizing and fundraising.
"Everything is run out of people's homes," said Michael Novelli, an Obama coordinator in Maryland. "I wish we had more resources, but it's a massive effort with all the other states coming before us, so we've been sort of left to our own devices."
The goal is to build a corps of volunteers that can ramp up quickly for a six-day sprint. On Wednesday evening, about a dozen Obama volunteers gathered in a meeting room at the James M. Duncan Branch of the Alexandria public library to make calls from their cellphones.
Working from scripts supplied by the campaign, they contacted Northern Virginians who have expressed support for Obama in the past in an effort to expand the organization for the six-day campaign next month.
"What about working at the polls on primary day?" one volunteer asked. "What about door-to-door canvassing?"
Christine West, 28, an ebullient Obama volunteer whose day job is running a Web site for a nonprofit group, has convened the group every week for the past couple of months. She doesn't question Virginia's significance.
"We are going to be huge!" she said. "We're just getting started."
Because time will be short after Super Tuesday, each campaign will hitch at least some of its fortune to local officials who have pledged support. District Mayor Adrian M. Fenty, who endorsed Obama over the summer, brings a formidable canvassing and fundraising operation. In Maryland, Clinton has drawn the backing of Gov. Martin O'Malley and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown. Obama has the support of Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler, Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn F. Ivey and state Sen. Ulysses Currie (Prince George's). Former senator John Edwards of North Carolina has had a smaller presence. On the Republican side, Ehrlich's old organization is expected to help Giuliani with phone banks.
In the Virginia Democratic race, Clinton and Obama are staking claim to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's organization, which won the state in 2005 and helped the party take the state Senate last year. Kaine has endorsed Obama and campaigned for him in several primary states. But Kaine's 2005 campaign manager, Mike Henry, is working as Clinton's deputy campaign manager. Clinton's regional finance director is Matthew Felan, who directed Kaine's fundraising.
"We will not be turning our attention to Virginia for the first time on February 6th," said Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee, Kaine's 2005 communications director. Edwards has the support of state Democratic Party Chairman Richard Cranwell of Vinton and several state senators from western Virginia, including R. Edward Houck (Spotsylvania).
On the Republican side in Virginia, U.S. Sen. John W. Warner and Rep. Thomas M. Davis III have endorsed McCain. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is co-chairman of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's campaign in the state.
The polls are not going to mean much until closer to primary day. And even then, as history suggests, they might not mean a whole lot. In a poll early this month by Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies, Obama led Clinton in Maryland, 36 percent to 33 percent, with Edwards garnering 17 percent. McCain, with 23 percent, led former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Giuliani, both with 15 percent, and Romney with 13 percent. A Rassmussen Reports survey from about the same time shows McCain and Obama favorably positioned in Virginia.
The candidates with the hottest hands are most likely to dominate Feb. 12.
That was the case in 2004, when Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts came into Virginia for the Feb. 10 Democratic primary after winning five states Feb. 3, followed by Michigan and Washington state the next weekend. He soundly defeated his closest competitors, Edwards and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark.
Staff writers David Nakamura and Philip Rucker and researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.
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