Economy, War To Dominate State of Union

But even if the president does not dwell on his legacy publicly, he is aware that it will be shaped by the economy and Iraq. Both issues will figure prominently in tonight's prime-time address, perhaps his last major opportunity to break through the din of the campaign trail and speak directly to the public.

On the economy, the president is seeking to steer the country away from a recession and has accelerated his efforts to develop economic stimulus legislation. His speech tonight will press Congress to complete work on the package, which features tax rebates and incentives for businesses to invest in facilities and equipment.

On Iraq, his task for his final year is perhaps more daunting: After nearly five years of sectarian violence in Iraq, he wants to hand over a stable, functioning country to his successor. Aides said that Bush will tout progress over the past year in Iraq, where his troop buildup and counterinsurgency strategy helped reduce attacks by about 60 percent, even while he prepares Americans for a difficult year.

There is mixed evidence that this message is resonating. Polls suggest that the past year has seen gradual improvement in public perceptions of Iraq, but voters still view the war as a mistake and give Bush poor marks for his approach.

Democrats contend that the president's new security strategy for Iraq has not produced the corollary political progress and reconciliation that he said would result from the "breathing space" produced by more U.S. troops. "What people understand is that while there may be some tactical progress on the ground, the overall strategic situation has not improved dramatically," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

White House advisers realize that speeches alone will not bolster support for the war, and that only improved "facts on the ground" can sway the public.

But they also know there is little that Congress can do to interfere with Bush's approach to the conflict in his final year, and they believe the public will be heartened by a gradual return of combat units from Iraq under the withdrawal plan he outlined in September.

Perhaps the biggest question Bush faces about Iraq is whether he will go beyond this plan, under which U.S. troop levels are scheduled to fall from 160,000 to 130,000 by midsummer. Some generals in the Pentagon hope to pull several more combat brigades out of Iraq by the end of the Bush term to ease the stress on the Army caused by the conflicts there and in Afghanistan.

Aides said Bush will not give answers about potential further troop reductions during the State of the Union speech, preferring to wait until he hears a recommendation from Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, this spring.

But they said it is possible Bush may push back a bit against the Pentagon, making it clear -- as he did recently when he met with Petraeus in Kuwait -- that he is willing to stop the drawdown if he sees a security need.

"He doesn't want to backslide," said one of the administration's top officials on Iraq, who would discuss internal deliberations only on the condition of anonymity. The official said Bush wants to put Iraq "on a sustainable basis" for the next president -- and will be careful about risking any recent security gains by leaving too few troops in place.

Allies and opponents predict that the president will be cautious in discussing Iraq tonight, knowing that even continued security or political improvements this year would leave the country far short of the thriving beacon of Middle East democracy Bush once envisioned.

In the past year, "there has been a dramatic improvement from a disaster that was about to befall us to a situation where the next administration might have choices," said retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who in the past has offered grim assessments of Iraq.

"I hope he's modest in his appraisal of the situation."