For Giuliani, the Trip South Started Early

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The Candidates React-- Rudy Giuliani

Presidential candidate former mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.) addresses his supporters after the Florida primary election results filter in.

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But McCain was reviving himself. His steadfast support of the U.S. troop increase in Iraq was proving to be a political boost. By late November, the media were reporting that the increase had lessened violence in parts of Iraq, making McCain look prescient. He was slowly becoming the predominant voice on national security, stripping Giuliani of one of his major campaign calling cards.

McCain began to climb while Romney continued to lead the New Hampshire field. And that started to have consequences for Florida, as well.

According to sources close to the Giuliani campaign who spoke on the condition of anonymity, Giuliani left two private meetings last year with Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, believing he had secured his backing. But in October, a feisty McCain met with Crist and told him he was going to win in New Hampshire.

"I know you're getting a lot of pressure from Rudy's people," McCain told Crist, according to a McCain aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he works with many Republicans. "But please don't endorse anybody before New Hampshire."

"His heart was always with McCain," said the aide, who recalls how McCain, alone among all the GOP contenders, had endorsed Crist in a tough gubernatorial primary battle just two years earlier. "He didn't want to put a bullet in McCain's head by endorsing Giuliani. . . . Plus, he didn't like the Giuliani campaign strategy. Not many people were liking what they were hearing out of New Hampshire and Iowa about Giuliani."

Crist's decision not to endorse him had ramifications stretching far beyond Florida. A critical part of Giuliani's national strategy depended on signaling early to possible contributors and voters that, after his rivals had beaten up one another in the early primary states, he would be a heavy favorite in Florida, having locked up key support from Crist and others in the state's GOP establishment.

Believing that Crist and his aides had committed to an endorsement, Giuliani aides had already set aside Nov. 18 for the governor to announce his support and then accompany them on the campaign trail. It was to have been a major week in several parts of the country for the campaign, which would release its first television advertisement in New Hampshire on Nov. 15, as part of a last push in the Granite State to see whether Giuliani, who had lost ground in state polls, could rebound there.

The ad, dubbed "Tested," chronicled New York's turnaround during the Giuliani mayoral years. It was a huge hit, and staffers were optimistic about its power to move voters.

Crist, the ad and an anticipated wave of momentum: The combination looked auspicious to the Giuliani team.

But, in early November, the staff received the news of Crist's decision to stay neutral for the time being. Giuliani felt betrayed, having been convinced in private meetings with Crist that an endorsement was in the works and that all that was left to do was to work out some details.

Crist was just one of several major setbacks for the campaign in November. Early in the month, Giuliani's former police chief, Bernard Kerik, was indicted on charges of federal tax fraud and conspiracy, triggering more questions about Giuliani's knowledge of his former friend's business dealings. On Nov. 28, the Politico Web site reported on questionable accounting practices during Giuliani's mayoral term in which security costs for Judith Nathan -- then his mistress -- were billed to obscure city agencies.

The article reignited a simmering narrative about the mayor's professional ethics and his personal life -- issues that had been dampened until then. Within days of the Politico report, campaign advisers saw Giuliani's poll numbers, which had risen for a few days after the airing of the "Tested" ad, drop alarmingly.