For Giuliani, the Trip South Started Early

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The Candidates React-- Rudy Giuliani

Presidential candidate former mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.) addresses his supporters after the Florida primary election results filter in.

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The campaign turned pessimistic about New Hampshire, and by mid-December, it was running its last television ads in the state. The decision struck some state volunteers as simply more evidence of the national campaign's erratic mode of operation.

At a meeting with the national team, Semprini delivered an optimistic forecast of Giuliani's chance to the campaign's county and town chairmen. Then a senior strategist addressed the group. "We expected a rousing pep talk, like, 'We're going to win here or do very well, and then we're on our way,' that sort of thing," the volunteer said.

Instead, the strategist told the volunteers that Giuliani would be fine with or without a win in New Hampshire.

Semprini angrily told the strategist that his statement had terribly deflated the group. "Don't even come back here unless it's with an inspiring message," Semprini told him and other national staffers. "Don't come here again and say that we're not needed."

Heading South in Florida

One adviser labeled the time from then to mid-January as the "period of darkness," when fundraising conference calls became dispiritingly quiet. Donors who used to ask a lot of strategic questions were oddly silent. When they did finally speak, it was usually to voice doubt. "You could sense . . . there was concern," the adviser said. "There was a lot of angst . . . over [Giuliani's] marginalization."

As if things couldn't get worse, this piece of news had surfaced at the Marriott meeting in December: The campaign had far less money than the advisers had imagined. The original budget for New Hampshire and Florida had been $15 million. But now the strategists were told that it had shrunk to $7.5 million. They were dumbstruck.

But they were boxed in by then, running out of options, the money running down. The campaign had to be revived in Florida, and only the candidate, relying on the force of his personality and famous toughness, could rescue himself.

Giuliani headed to Florida after an unexplained illness had forced him to turn around his plane for an emergency landing and to spend a night in a St. Louis hospital.

By the time he finally began his push in Florida, the media had completely turned their attention to Iowa before the first caucus there. DuHaime and other aides believed they could grab headlines with aggressive policy stances from Giuliani, coupled with tough television ads laced with barbs about his opposition.

One ad, which was ready to air, highlighted McCain's comments that he preferred the Federal Emergency Management Agency to a national insurance fund, an issue that perhaps offered an opening for Giuliani, who was pushing for a special catastrophic insurance fund. The ad, featuring a foreboding shot of FEMA trailers, had a chance to resonate in a state where natural disasters have prompted calls for broadened insurance coverage. Another ad showed a series of testimonials for Giuliani, ending with two elderly women saying: "He won't raise taxes like that other guy -- or flip-flop like you-know-who."

But the ads never ran.

Instead, the commercials and others like them were e-mailed to the campaign bus, where DuHaime and others pressed Giuliani to use them. He refused, saying in some cases that he wasn't comfortable with them.

On the stump in Florida, Giuliani never said anything that forced the spotlight back his way. On Dec. 16, he delivered a much-hyped speech billed as a relaunch of his campaign message. It said nothing new and received little attention. "It was a constant battle to dial him up," one aide said of the lack of energy or the old winning combativeness in his appearances. "Every day: a constant battle."

In the campaign's desperate last push, it was spending about $1 million a week on television ads. But Giuliani's poll numbers stagnated -- and then began to slide. Crist made a highly publicized endorsement -- of McCain. By the final days, Giuliani was seldom even mentioning his opponents by name, his speeches having been ratcheted down to valedictory messages. He genially talked about his plans for tax cuts and his support of the catastrophic insurance fund. Sometimes he spoke to half-filled rooms, in an indication of an outcome that looked inevitable by then even to his own staff.

On primary day, during the morning TV news shows, he resisted questions about the possibility of his withdrawal. But he did open slightly when asked why he thought he was trailing so badly.

"The emphasis on early primaries . . . has created a certain momentum," he said of his fate, and smiled with the understanding of a politician who had seen a truth. Campaigns must fight early, or else fade from the electorate's consciousness.