For McCain, Momentum That May Be Hard to Stop

Video

The Candidates React-- John McCain

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) addresses his supporters after winning the Florida primary election.

» LAUNCH VIDEO PLAYER

Exit polls from Florida showed, however, the ideological fault lines that will shape the competition between Romney and McCain over the next week.

Among those who described themselves as very conservative, Romney beat McCain by better than 2 to 1. Among moderates, McCain beat Romney by the same ratio. Among those who said they are "somewhat conservative," the two ran roughly even.

McCain enjoys clear advantages over Romney on the war in Iraq, and his support for President Bush's troop increase has become a badge of honor in this race. But what was perhaps a surprise was that McCain trumped Romney on the economy, the issue that has come to dominate the presidential race and one that Romney counted as his most effective weapon in Florida.

More than 4 in 10 Florida Republicans said the economy is the most important problem facing the country, and McCain carried their votes. Romney won among Republicans with the most positive impression of the economy; McCain dominated among those who see an economy in trouble.

One Romney strategist said the former governor's goal will be to maximize the number of delegates he accumulates on Super Tuesday in an effort to deny McCain a decisive victory. But the terrain clearly favors McCain at this point.

With or without Giuliani's help, McCain will probably win primaries in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, as well as those states' delegates. He leads in polls in California, where delegates are apportioned on the basis of who wins each congressional district, and may be able to expand his appeal there as well.

Romney hopes to work the heartland and some Southern states, but will find his path partially blocked by Huckabee. But even with Romney's considerable resources, knowing where to spend his time and money represents a huge challenge. "The political calculus of Super Tuesday . . . makes the November electoral calculus look like simple math," said Republican strategist Neil Newhouse.

McCain advisers said they anticipate a week of political combat with Romney. "It will be more of the same on the economy and the attacks he engaged in" Monday, said one McCain adviser, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly about strategy. "McCain will have to pivot to talk about authenticity. . . . We'll say McCain is ready to be commander in chief and Romney is a guy who is a slick salesman."

McCain was ebullient as he addressed supporters in Florida on Tuesday night, sounding the call for one more big effort from them in the coming days. Surveying the landscape of Super Tuesday and what amounts now to a national primary that may well decide the Republican race, he said, "I intend to win it and be the nominee of our party."