By Anne E. Kornblut and Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, February 4, 2008
ST. LOUIS, Feb. 3 -- With polls showing them virtually even in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination two days before Super Tuesday, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton rushed to make their final appeals Sunday, with Clinton's advisers starting to play down expectations as Obama picked up more endorsements from prominent Democrats.
Clinton and Obama nearly crossed paths in Missouri, a bellwether state expected to be highly contested with the Republicans in November. Both candidates made the case for their electability in appearances Sunday, each arguing that they would be better able to compete against Sen. John McCain, who appears poised to all but lock up the Republican nomination this week.
From here, Clinton went on to Minnesota and Obama to Delaware. On Monday, both will be campaigning in the Northeast, with Clinton returning to New York to host a national "town hall" meeting that will be seen on her Web site and the Hallmark Channel, and Obama closing the day at a rally in Boston with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass).
Among the endorsements Obama received were two from prominent women -- Kate Michelman, the abortions rights activist, who had backed former senator John Edwards, and Maria Shriver, wife of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). The Illinois senator has consistently trailed Clinton in support among women voters, who could play a crucial role in the California vote Tuesday.
Shriver, the niece of Edward Kennedy, made a surprise appearance at an Obama rally in Los Angeles, joining her cousin Caroline Kennedy and TV talk show host Oprah Winfrey, who made her first appearance on Obama's behalf since before the New Hampshire primary.
His campaign also aired ads during the Super Bowl -- an expensive exercise -- in a broad swath of Super Tuesday states.
Democratic strategists now believe that the primaries Tuesday in 22 states will not resolve the nomination fight and are bracing for an extended race that could last well into March or beyond.
One Clinton adviser, granted anonymity in order to speak candidly about the contest, said the campaign is now anticipating it will not be able to reclaim its front-runner status on Tuesday night. Even California, once believed to be firmly in the Clinton column, has now tightened, the adviser said, but Clinton still hopes to carry it. A Field Poll released Sunday showed Clinton and Obama in a statistical tie in the state.
"It is likely that people are going to wake up Wednesday morning still scratching their heads, saying, 'We don't know who is the front-runner on the Democratic side,' " the Clinton adviser said.
Clinton faced a question about electability during a question-and-answer session in a union hall in St. Louis, where a supporter asked what she would do to ensure that Democrats don't "shoot ourselves in our own foot this time."
"This is going to be open season once again, and we need to nominate somebody with the experience and the fortitude and know-how to take what they send our way and send it right back," Clinton replied.
In that same vein, in a memo titled "new information," chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn pointed to three recent news stories that he said suggested Obama has not been fully vetted. Penn wrote that the stories -- about Obama's records on the nuclear power industry, plant closings and gun ownership -- illustrated that voters have "very limited information" about Obama even as millions of people in nearly two dozen states prepare to head to the polls.
In his appearances, Obama expanded on his customary stump speech, adding a new section arguing that he would make a stronger opponent against McCain in the general election because he had opposed the war in Iraq from the start, unlike Clinton, who voted to authorize the use of force against Iraq. Obama also said he would more forcefully argue for left-leaning goals such as raising the cap on income taxed for Social Security.
"If John McCain is the nominee, then the Democratic Party has to ask itself, do you want a candidate who has similar policies to John McCain on the war in Iraq, or someone who can offer a stark contrast?" Obama said.
"When I'm the nominee, McCain won't be able to say, 'You were for this war in Iraq,' because I wasn't. . . . I can offer a clear and clean break from the failed policies of George W. Bush," Obama said. "We need clarity in this campaign, and that's what I offer."
Obama is hoping to win outright in states where he was not expected to be competitive just a few weeks ago, although victories in smaller states would pack less of a wallop than wins in places such as California or New Jersey.
Even Alaska is on Obama's radar screen. "The Obama campaign in Alaska is a juggernaut compared to Clinton's effort," the Anchorage Daily News reported on Sunday. Senior Obama aide Pete Rouse, who used to work in Alaska politics, has helped to sign up more than 50 local leaders to back Obama, including former Gov. Tony Knowles.
Advisers to both Obama and Clinton now say the big mystery is California, where Clinton held a substantial lead until recently. The Field survey showed that nearly a fifth of California voters are still undecided, raising the possibility that the state could shift decisively to one candidate on Tuesday.
While his wife campaigned to the east, former president Bill Clinton visited four churches in mostly black sections of Los Angeles, striking a markedly more conciliatory theme than he did in the days leading up to the South Carolina primary. The former president never mentioned Obama by name.
The campaigns expect Tuesday to be scored three ways: by delegate count, by who takes California, and by who wins the most states.
If the overall outcome is a muddle, as both campaigns increasingly expect, Obama aides see a playing field heavily skewed in their favor in the next round of contests. Three states hold contests on Saturday: Louisiana, which has a large African American population, and Washington and Nebraska, which are both caucus states. Obama appears to hold the advantage in all of them, aides said, a point that Clinton advisers did not dispute.
Obama also expects to win the Maine caucuses on Sunday, and his campaign anticipates that Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia will all break for him on Feb. 12. Clinton strategists plan on having her campaign in all of those contests but are banking on big victories on March 4 in Ohio and Texas.
"She's going to have to sustain losses on four different days in February, over two weeks," said senior Obama adviser Steve Hildebrand. "That's not easy, whatever happens on Feb. 5."
A Clinton adviser conceded: "We could be looking at what is a tough month for us."
It is in the next phase also that Obama's strong financial position will pay off, Hildebrand said. The Obama campaign currently employs 500 paid staffers with 90 offices in the 30 states. It is advertising in all three Feb. 9 states. And it can afford to wage an all-out battle for Wisconsin on Feb. 19, where both campaigns are expected to deploy some of their most senior ground operatives.
Kornblut reported from Washington. Staff writers Karl Vick in Los Angeles, Shailagh Murray in Washington, and Dan Balz contributed to this report.
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