8 Questions Super Tuesday Could Answer

Gallery

Going for Votes on Super Tuesday

Democratic and Republican presidential candidates campaign across the nation as voters go to the polls on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008, when 24 states hold primaries, caucuses or state conventions.

» LAUNCH PHOTO GALLERY

Arizona is worth watching to see whether Gov. Janet Napolitano's endorsement of Obama can overcome Clinton's strength among Hispanics. In Massachusetts, Obama has the support of Sens. Edward M. Kennedy and John F. Kerry and of Gov. Deval L. Patrick, but Clinton is very popular there.

New Jersey has lots of delegates, and its proximity to New York makes it Clinton country, but as in California, polls show the race tightening.

In the Republican race, California is worth watching, as are such Southern states as Georgia and Tennessee. The Southern states will tell two things: how much Huckabee is hurting Romney, and how well McCain can consolidate conservatives. "Significant wins in [Tennessee and Georgia] will signify an embrace by GOP conservatives -- critical if he's going to win in November," wrote Republican pollster Neil Newhouse.

Finally, as one GOP strategist put it, if Romney loses Massachusetts, "head out to dinner and take your time. It's over."

Where Will Edwards's Voters Go?

4) Before he ended his campaign, former senator John Edwards (N.C.) liked to say there were two candidates for change in the Democratic race. That would suggest that his supporters are more likely to shift to Obama than to Clinton. But strategists say the reality is more complicated.

Edwards had multiple constituencies, including loyalists from 2004, economic populists and anti-establishment voters. Clinton will draw more conservative and downscale Democrats because of her economic message. Obama will get antiwar, change-oriented Edwards voters and those who already had decided on Anybody But Clinton. Some may go into the undecided column or just stay home. Clinton will draw more of them in the South, and Obama may do better with them in California.

Whether Edwards's constituency will be critical in affecting the outcome of the Democratic race is an entirely different question. "The big waves affecting Obama and Clinton are going to prove more important than the ultimate decisions of the small group formerly committed to Edwards," wrote Democratic strategist Mark Mellman.

Can Obama Win Latino Votes?

5) Clinton won 64 percent of the Latino vote in the Nevada caucus two weeks ago, and her popularity with Hispanics is considered an obstacle to Obama's hopes of winning Arizona, New Mexico and California -- states with large Hispanic populations.

Obama is not well-known among Latino voters, and there have been suggestions of black-brown tensions that could complicate his efforts to cut into Clinton's margins. Democratic strategists say lack of familiarity is a bigger problem than racial tensions, and Obama's advisers point out that when he ran for the Senate, he did well among Hispanic voters.

Obama's advisers also hope that Kennedy's endorsement will influence Latinos, and the senator from Massachusetts campaigned in New Mexico and in Latino areas of Los Angeles late last week. The question is whether Obama can cut into that lead enough to win those states or keep Clinton's margins low enough to split the delegates.