8 Questions Super Tuesday Could Answer

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Going for Votes on Super Tuesday

Democratic and Republican presidential candidates campaign across the nation as voters go to the polls on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008, when 24 states hold primaries, caucuses or state conventions.

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Will Women Continue to Be Clinton's Secret Weapon?

6) By now, there is nothing secret about Clinton and women: She has relied on them everywhere. But they are her most important assets. Women made up 57 percent of the Democratic electorate in Iowa and New Hampshire, 59 percent in Nevada, and 61 percent in South Carolina.

Over the past month, Clinton has increased her margin over Obama among women in Washington Post-ABC News national polls. Right after New Hampshire, she had an 11-point lead. As of this weekend, it was 15 points.

Advisers in both campaigns will be carefully analyzing the exit polls tonight to see whether they continue to make up more than half the Democratic electorates and whether there is any slippage in Clinton's support. In reality, she may need to increase her percentages among women now that it's a two-person race in order to win a decisive edge in delegates.

Clinton won where she had a decisive margin among women and lost where she did not. As one Democratic strategist wrote, "If she doesn't win big with women, she doesn't win."

Can McCain Win Conservatives And Pro-Bush Republicans?

7) This is probably the week in which McCain starts winning Republicans in bigger numbers.

McCain lost them in his 2000 campaign against George W. Bush, and he has yet to win self-identified Republicans in any contest this year -- despite becoming the clear front-runner for the nomination.

McCain has also done better with Republicans who have a negative view of President Bush than among the majority of Republicans who still have a positive impression of the president.

But winning begets winning, and since Florida there are signs that McCain is beginning to attract more support from the base. "Rank-and-file Republicans will rally behind John McCain once the nomination is secured," wrote his former chief strategist, John Weaver. "Will there be some who have to enter a 12-step program before they can see their way? Sure. But they'll come along over the next several months."

Which Democrat Is Positioned for A Long Campaign After Today?

8) Obama may have the edge on this. His $32 million fundraising record in January shows that he will have more money than Clinton to wage a long campaign. He will also have more time to become better known in upcoming states than he did in the 22 states in which he is competing today.

The next round of primaries and caucuses this month tends to look better for him than for Clinton. Her strategists are pessimistic about her chances in Washington, Louisiana, Wisconsin and Maryland, as well as in the District. But they see Ohio and Texas on March 4 as critical states in which she has a foundation of support and could add to her delegate strength.

Rules for selecting delegates are structured in a way that makes it difficult for candidates to gain a decisive advantage unless they begin winning by margins approaching 20 percentage points. In this race, that could be difficult. At the same time, if one candidate falls behind in the count by as many as 200 pledged delegates, making up that deficit will be extremely difficult, given the rules.

Clinton's strategists are counting on the support of "superdelegates" -- those party leaders and elected officials who automatically have seats at the convention -- to build her delegate lead. In the early stages, she has such an advantage. But in the past, superdelegates tended to follow election returns. If Obama wins primaries consistently, he is likely to attract more and more superdelegates.

Momentum and psychology therefore will play an important role over the next few weeks. Clinton may be stronger in a war of attrition, particularly if she wins big battleground states in March. But a number of strategists surveyed over the weekend said Obama might have more room for growth in his support, and if he can develop a sense of momentum she would be at a disadvantage.