Democrats Choose Different Paths Toward Nomination

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Clinton and Obama Celebrate Feb. 5 Victories

Americans in 24 states went to the polls on Feb. 5 to cast ballots in the largest ever "Super Tuesday" election. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, the two Democratic frontrunners, cast votes in their home states and then awaited the results. Both candidates scored important victories.

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Because the Democratic party apportions many of its delegates according to the results in each state's congressional districts, rather than by a winner-take-all formatanalysts expect a tight race for weeks to come. Some said Obama appears likely to do well in the Potomac primaries and could overtake Clinton in the delegate count a week from now.

"She's holding on right now, but you would anticipate he would win Virginia, Maryland and D.C.," said Sara M. Taylor, the former Bush White House political director. "She is going to be behind next Tuesday, which is remarkable."

Still, continued trench warfare for delegates appeared likely this morning, with the focus on the roughly 800 "super delegates"--members of Congress, party officials, governors and others who may vote for any candidate they like

"With two candidates this strong, I just do not foresee how either of them will come out with enough of a lead among the elected delegates to be anywhere near being able to get the nomination," said Joe Trippi, who until recently was a top campaign adviser to former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.). Trippi said in an interview this morning that he now believes the race will come down to who can do a better job of wooing, wining and dining the super delegates.

While Clinton may enjoy an early lead, he noted, these top officials will be looking carefully at who they believe can win the general election. "I don't believe it's clear who has the advantage among super delegates now," Trippi said.

Elaine Kamarck, a super delegate committed to Clinton and a one-time adviser to Al Gore, agreed that the battle for these delegates could be critical, but said she believed it would break on behalf of the candidate who demonstrates electoral strength in the states ahead.

"They are going to try and reflect as best as possible the will of the people," said Kamarck.

But exactly who reflects the will of the Democratic electorate was hard to determine this morning. Exit polls yesterday showed clear lines emerging between the Democratic candidates on race, gender and class.

In the mega-state of California, for instance, Obama scored well among African Americans, college-educated voters and those making more than $50,000; Clinton won among Hispanics, non-college graduates and those who earn less than $50,000. Obama won big among white men; Clinton was victorious among white females, who made up a little bit more of the California electorate. There was also a clear generational divide between the two candidates yesterday. In many of the key states, including Illinois, Missouri and Massachusetts, Clinton swamped Obama among older white voters, while he racked up big margins among younger voters.

The exit polls yesterday echoed recent national polls suggesting that the economy has thoroughly overtaken the war in Iraq as the principal concern of the electorate, a trend that appeared to be working to Clinton's advantage.

While Obama beat Clinton among voters in key states who cited Iraq as their most important concern, Clinton appeared to be carried to victory in places such as California, New Jersey, Tennessee and Massachusetts by voters motivated by the weakening economy.

Trippi said that before Edwards dropped out of the race last week, Clinton was the only candidate competing with the former North Carolina senator for the allegiances of less affluent, economically pressured Democrats.

"Obama wasn't having any success connecting to them," Trippi said. On Super Tuesday, he added, "[Obama] did pick up some, but she always has had an advantage there. His appeal has always been to upscale, better educated Democrats."

But Obama will bring his own strengths to the campaign ahead, not least of all the excitement he is generating on the campaign trail.

"This factor about excitement continues to grow and be a big thing--I think it is one of his biggest assets," said Jeremy Rosner, a Democratic pollster who is supporting Obama. "It's a huge, huge factor supporting him in the race. It's a level above the issue contest."