The Formidable McCain

A fascinating dynamic appears when voters are asked to judge the candidates' strength and experience vs. their new ideas and potential for bringing change. McCain and Clinton match closely in both dimensions, while McCain leads Obama by 20 points on strength and experience, but Obama has a 31-point edge on representing a new direction.

Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster, suggests that McCain, nearing 72, "will look older and older" if he is matched against the youthful Obama. But he also notes that in 1988, when Democrats put forward Michael Dukakis as the "change" candidate of the younger generation, George H.W. Bush won by offering "stability in a time of transition."

Clearly, McCain's age will be more of an issue in the general election than in the primaries. And so will his steadfast position on Iraq, symbolized by his support of the troop surge and his declaration that U.S. troops might have to remain there for 100 years. In the Post poll, McCain is competitive, though trailing slightly, with Clinton and Obama on both the economy and health care, but he loses badly among voters for whom the war in Iraq is the top issue. Tim Hibbits, an independent pollster in Oregon, said, "People admire McCain's principled stand against cutting and running, but it doesn't answer the question why the hell we are there."

Still, McCain is the only candidate in either party with a favorable personal rating by Republicans, Democrats, independents and evangelical voters. He will be formidable.

davidbroder@washpost.com