This article about the Virginia primary incorrectly said that Virginia has not had a seriously contested Democratic primary for governor or U.S. senator in more than a decade. In June 2006, Democrats James Webb and Harris Miller faced each other in a primary that Webb won.
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Va. Is Next Battleground In Democrats' Long Fight
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Strategists say African Americans could make up 25 percent of Virginians voting in the Democratic primary. Scott, the congressman, said he expects Obama to win a solid majority of those voters but warned that he should not underestimate Clinton's black support.
"You have two candidates that are both frankly deserving of a good vote in the African American community, and they will have to look very closely at which would be the stronger candidate," said Scott, who added that he is convinced Obama would be the superior candidate in the general election.
Yesterday, Obama's team announced that Kaine's wife, Anne Holton, and Warner's wife, Lisa Collis, are helping lead the group Virginia Women for Obama.
"We desperately need to tell the world it's a new day, and for so many reasons he would be the man to do that," said Holton, daughter of former Virginia governor A. Linwood Holton Jr., who in 1969 became the state's first Republican governor in the 20th century.
Clinton, who has lent her campaign $5 million to underwrite the post-Super Tuesday push, will pursue older white professional women in Northern Virginia. Her strategists also see an opportunity in southwest Virginia, where unemployment and the lack of affordable health care are major issues. They see conditions in the region as similar to those in neighboring Tennessee, which Clinton won Tuesday, and in rural Missouri, where she also did well, though she narrowly lost the state to Obama.
She was endorsed this week by Democrats in Wise County in southwest Virginia, though the area's congressman, Rick Boucher, is supporting Obama.
"Whether she wins or loses, it is going to be close," said Reilly, the Warner confidante. "And even if she loses it by a couple of points, she is going to have a healthy share of delegates."
But Clinton might encounter difficulty connecting with southwest Virginians, who have been hit hard by plant closings, said Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a former strategist for John Edwards, who dropped out of the race. He said many people there blame the North American Free Trade Agreement, signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 1993.
Saunders said Obama will also have to work hard to introduce himself to that region, an uphill feat in what amounts to a five-day campaign.
Political strategists said it might be difficult for either Clinton or Obama to predict who will show up at the polls. Virginia hasn't had a contested Democratic primary for governor or U.S. senator in more than a decade. The last seriously competitive Democratic presidential primary was in 1988, when Jesse Jackson won with 45 percent of the vote.
"You are just going into a void of unknowns," said David Petts, a pollster who works for state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath), who is running for governor in 2009. "There is no primary history, and judging turnout has been very critical in all the contests so far."
Staff writer Tim Craig in Richmond contributed to this report.
