A Rotten Way to Pick a President

Until recently, Republicans did much better at opening up their nominating process without producing surefire losers. Why? Perhaps because the GOP establishment survived the 1960s far more handily than did the Democratic establishment, despite the reforms. When Reagan came to power in 1980, he merged the Republican right with the old party establishment -- defeating the establishment candidate, George H.W. Bush, then putting him on the ticket. Despite some turbulence along the way (such as televangelist Pat Robertson's startling second-place finish in the 1988 Iowa caucuses, or Mike Huckabee's victory there this cycle), the GOP's establishment candidate has tended to prevail: The elder Bush had his turn in 1988, followed by Robert Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000. Indeed, from 1952 to 2004, the lone exception to this rule took place in 1964, when Barry Goldwater seized the nomination despite the qualms of the party establishment. With that sole exception -- which produced a crushing defeat -- either a Nixon, a Dole or a Bush has always been on the national ticket, and the Republicans have won nine out of 14 presidential elections.

But the times may be changing for Republicans. This year's primaries have shown that the old Reagan coalition has disintegrated. The seemingly inevitable nominee, Sen. John McCain, was the closest thing to a favorite of the old GOP establishment, but he raises hackles on the right with his pro-immigration, anti-torture views. Party stalwarts such as Rush Limbaugh and evangelical leader James Dobson have bellowed that McCain's nomination would mean the death of the GOP. On Super Tuesday, McCain lost in Southern states where the Republican base is strongest and thrived in ones that Democrats are likely to carry in November.

The unintended consequences of the well-intended reforms of the 1970s are now glaringly clear. Perhaps now, both parties will agree to reform the nominating system once again: abolishing caucuses, regularizing a rigorous system of national debates, closing open primaries, grabbing power back from the media and so on. We could still get it right in 2012.

swilentz@princeton.edu, jzelizer@princeton.edu

Sean Wilentz and Julian E. Zelizer teach U.S. political history at Princeton University.

Wilentz is the author of the forthcoming "The Age

of Reagan: A History, 1974-2008," and Zelizer is the co-editor of "Rightward Bound: Making America Conservative in the 1970s."