Obama Takes Hawaii and Wisconsin in Decisive Fashion

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Wisconsin, Washington and Hawaii Primaries

Primaries in two states on Feb. 19 (Wisconsin and Washington ) may cement John McCain's grasp on the GOP presidential nomination. On the Democratic side, Wisconsin and Hawaii voters will pick between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

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There were 74 convention delegates at stake in Wisconsin last night, along with 20 in Hawaii. Even before Wisconsin and Hawaii, Obama held a lead over the senator from New York in delegates awarded in the primaries and caucuses. When superdelegates -- the 795 members of Congress, governors and other party officials with automatic credentials for the Democratic National Convention -- are included, he is still ahead, but by a narrower margin.

About 30 percent of pledged delegates have yet to be awarded, and several hundred superdelegates remain uncommitted. But, given Democratic rules that award delegates proportionally, Obama's slowly expanding advantage will become more and more difficult for Clinton to overcome unless she can win upcoming contests by huge margins.

The Clinton team had sought to play down expectations in Wisconsin, describing the state as one in which the combination of liberal party activists and independent voters gave Obama a clear advantage. But Wisconsin's electorate also includes a substantial number of blue-collar workers who have been prime Clinton targets in other races, and an African American community that is smaller than others in many states where Obama has done well.

Along with Hawaii, Obama has won eight states, the District and the Virgin Islands since Super Tuesday, with the campaign now heading to Ohio and Texas. Clinton advisers have said she must win those two states.

Clinton's roots in Texas go back three decades, to the 1972 campaign of George S. McGovern. She begins the Texas campaign with clear strength in the Hispanic community and a network of friends and supporters in many other key constituencies. But Obama hopes to tap a younger generation of leaders and to cut into Clinton's advantage among Latino and working-class voters.

In Ohio, Clinton advisers see an electorate highly sensitive to economic issues and potentially receptive to her bread-and-butter message of bringing aid, benefits and opportunity to workers displaced or threatened by job losses because of global changes in the economy. She also enjoys the support of Gov. Ted Strickland.

Obama plans to stress differences with Clinton on trade and the North American Free Trade Agreement, and has begun to sharpen his economic message in anticipation of the Ohio campaign. Early polls have given Clinton the lead in Ohio -- one showed her with a double-digit advantage -- but both sides anticipate a fierce campaign there.

The key to Obama's success in Wisconsin was his ability to tap into the coalition Clinton had assembled in many other states earlier this year. It was a replication of the contours of his victory last week in Virginia. If it continues, it will significantly change the Democratic race, putting Clinton at a substantial disadvantage in Ohio as well as other upcoming states, including Pennsylvania, which will vote April 22.

Obama was attracting more support from women, less-educated and lower-income voters, and white working-class voters than he generally has in other states. By breaking into Clinton's coalition, he was able to overcome a Wisconsin electorate that was heavily female and that included no more independent voters than it did four years ago.

Women made up 58 percent of the electorate in Wisconsin, and they have been a key Clinton constituency throughout the campaign. But rather than winning them, as she has in key contests, the two candidates split the group last night. Obama, meanwhile, won men by more than 30 percentage points.

He did as well with white men as he has done in any state other than Utah. Among white women, Clinton had only a narrow edge last night. In 24 previous contests where there have been Democratic exit polls, she carried white women by double digits 19 times.

Obama won the votes of those earning less than $50,000 and got about half of white voters without a college degree, his best showing in any major contest.

Staff writers Anne E. Kornblut with Clinton and Jonathan Weisman with Obama, and polling director Jon Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta in Washington contributed to this report.