Let's Just Say Obama's the Nominee. So, Who's the Running Mate?

Let's face it. It's over. Teamsters President James P. Hoffa may have provided the last bit of muscle Wednesday with his union's endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Barring a serious meltdown in the debates -- or a sensational revelation -- Obama will be the Democratic presidential nominee this fall.

The punditry agrees that a victory for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is at best improbable at this point. Ever-helpful Bill Clinton says that if Hillary doesn't win Texas and Ohio, she's toast. Our most recent poll shows a virtual tie in Texas and Clinton with a seven-point lead in Ohio.

Problem is, looking at the numbers, Clinton has to win both of them big. Obama has a lead of 150 elected or "pledged" delegates, according to NBC's calculation (The Washington Post uses a different formula to count). Clinton needs to win 58 percent of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get her lead back, NBC political director Chuck Todd notes. But that's hypothetical. The reality is worse.

If Obama wins the remaining states he's favored in, such as Vermont, Mississippi, North Carolina and Oregon, then Clinton will need to win 65 percent of the vote in places such as Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, Todd said.

Most observers are beginning to focus on the numbers of elected, or pledged, delegates because they've concluded that those are almost sure to be the only ones who will matter -- unless Clinton can persuade the superdelegates at the nominating convention to overrule the voters and destroy the Democratic Party once and for all.

By the way, Obama holds a lead of nearly 1 million votes -- that's 1 million-- in the popular vote, according to the Web site Real Clear Politics. Of course, that doesn't really count -- ask Al Gore-- but it's worth noting. If you throw in Florida and even Michigan -- where his name wasn't on the ballot -- Obama still leads by 300,000 votes.

So it's time for the In the Loop Obama Veep contest to guess who Obama will pick as his running mate. First 10 entrants who guess correctly will win a coveted navy blue "In the Loop" T-shirt. Winners will be announced shortly after Obama decides. One entry per person, please.

Send your pick to obamaveep@washpost.com. Deadline is midnight Wednesday. (Obama, his aides and anyone with a good excuse may, of course, enter on background.) To be eligible, you must include a cell, work or home telephone number.

Don't delay. (And don't worry: If Clinton's campaign somehow miraculously resuscitates, we'll do a Clinton veep contest.)

Autographer in Chief

Reporters covering President Bush's trip to Africa are dropping like flies. The latest victim was Jon Ward of the Washington Times, who somehow ran through a plate-glass window at the Liberian executive mansion yesterday while trying to keep up with the president. Colleagues say he has cuts on his right hand but is in surprisingly good shape, our colleague Peter Baker reports.

Earlier in the trip, Reuters reporter Deborah Charles fell down at the start of an event in Kigali, Rwanda, and badly injured her hand.

Air Force Col. Richard Tubb, the White House physician, came to her rescue, as he did with any number of aides and reporters who suffered various maladies during the six-day Africa trip, which ended yesterday.