Pakistan's Political Coalition Means New Challenges for U.S.

"The good news with the Kiyani split from government is that it allows us to move forward on the war on terror while staying out of the political process," said Xenia Dormandy, a former staffer on President Bush's national security council and now with Harvard University's Belfer Center. "We can do now what we couldn't do before Nov. 28."

A week after the vote, however, the Bush administration is still trying to determine how to create an opportunity out of the setback for Musharraf, often referred to by U.S. officials as a critical ally.

For six months, the Bush administration used all its leverage to persuade Musharraf that he needed to take dramatic steps to survive politically, and to fulfill their joint agenda against terrorism. Top Pentagon, State and intelligence officials virtually shuttled to Islamabad, urging the Pakistani general to take off his military uniform, allow opposition leaders to return home and hold democratic elections.

In the end, after his own crackdowns on opponents and emergency rule backfired, Musharraf finally complied. U.S. intelligence officials confidently predicted that the Feb. 18 elections would produce a new government blending opposition with Musharraf's political allies, with the Pakistani president still reigning over them all.

Instead, Musharraf's future is more uncertain than ever. His rivals have pledged to form a coalition government and vowed yesterday to curtail his power. The threat of impeachment looms. And the chief opposition parties, the Pakistan People's Party of the late Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League-N of Nawaz Shari, are talking about negotiating with tribes along the Afghan border that have been the mainstay of al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

The Bush administration publicly is standing by Musharraf. Bush took time from his Africa tour last week to call and congratulate him on holding a fair election and promise continued support, U.S. officials said.

Some parts of the administration are more willing than others to move on, say former U.S. officials and outside experts. The White House still hopes Musharraf will not be limited to a strictly ceremonial role, said Dormandy, while the State Department and U.S. Embassy in Islamabad are focused on the message that emerged from the election, which rejected Musharraf in favor of other politicians.