Kenya's Last Chance

As the country's political leaders dither, the risk of civil war is mounting.

KENYA, a country that for decades has been the anchor of East Africa, is perilously close to an implosion that could destroy what until recently looked like a promising future. In the past two months, ethnic violence has killed more than 1,500 people, displaced 300,000 more and polarized the country along tribal lines. Neighborhoods of Nairobi and swaths of the western part of the country have been swept by ethnic cleansing. The economy, dependent on exports and foreign aid, is reeling, and Kenyans fear the country is close to a merciless civil war -- the "moment that the U.S. was at in 1861," as Maina Kiai of the National Commission on Human Rights put it.

Whether that can be avoided depends on two proud and powerful political leaders who have spent the last few weeks alternately negotiating and threatening each other: President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga. The trouble began after a Dec. 27 election that, in all likelihood, Mr. Kibaki stole from Mr. Odinga. Mr. Kibaki at first tried to ride out the crisis and entrench himself as president, while Mr. Odinga at first insisted that the president resign. By late last week, guided by former U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan, they appeared close to a compromise under which Mr. Kibaki would remain president but Mr. Odinga would assume the new post of prime minister, with the cabinet to be shared between their two parties.

By yesterday, however, the agreement had still not been completed. Mr. Kibaki is still resisting handing over substantial powers to Mr. Odinga; in the background is the reluctance of the ethnic Kikuyu, the country's traditional elite, to yield power and economic privilege. Mr. Odinga, a member of the Luo tribe, has threatened new mass demonstrations for later this week if no agreement is reached. That could be the spark that renews the ethnic warfare now precariously on hold.

The United States, along with most of Africa, has a vital interest in preventing Kenya's destabilization. The Bush administration, which initially seemed to tilt toward Mr. Kibaki, has lately pressed for a settlement: Last week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that without an agreement the government would not enjoy "business as usual" with the United States. The administration now must push both sides -- but in particular Mr. Kibaki -- still harder. Even if a political accord can be reached in the coming days, Kenya will face a steep challenge to overcome its sudden polarization. But each day that the two leaders fail to reach a deal increases the chance that their country will be destroyed by civil war.