U.S.-Cuba Relations

A fundamental incompatibility of political views, experts say. From the U.S. perspective, by continuing to rule a one-party socialist state, Fidel Castro "has defied us and jeered at us for over half a century," Smith says. While experts say the United States wants regime change, "the most important objective of the Cuban government is to remain in power at all costs," says Felix Martin, assistant professor at Florida International University's Cuban Research Institute. Castro has been an inspiration for Latin American leftists such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales, who have challenged U.S. policy in the region.

What are the issues preventing normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations?

• Human rights violations. In March 2003, the Cuban government arrested seventy-five dissidents and journalists, sentencing them to prison terms of up to twenty-eight years on charges of conspiring with the United States to overthrow the state. The Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation, a Havana-based nongovernmental group, reports that the government has in recent years resorted to other tactics -- such as firings from state jobs and intimidation on the street -- besides prison to silence opposition figures. A 2005 UN Human Rights Commission vote condemned Cuba's human rights record, but the country was elected to the new UN Human Rights Council in 2006.
• Guantanamo Bay. Cuba indicated after 9/11 that it would not object if the United States brought prisoners to Guantanamo Bay. However, experts such as Sweig say Cuban officials have since seized on the U.S. prison camp -- where the hundreds of terror suspects have been detained without recourse to trial -- as a "symbol of solidarity" with the rest of the world against the United States.
• Cuban exile community. The Cuban-American community in southern Florida strongly influences U.S. policy with Cuba. Both political parties fear alienating what is seen as a strong voting bloc in an important swing state in presidential elections. Though the Bush administration's tightened travel restrictions upset many Cuban-Americans, hard-line Cuban exiles still lobby for regime change. Several Cuban-Americans sit on the U.S.-based Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba (CAFC).

What is CAFC?

CAFC, the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, was established by President Bush in 2003 to "help hasten and ease Cuba's democratic transition." Cochaired by then-Secretary of State Colin Powell, the commission is now headed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez. It issued reports in May 2004 and July 2006, the first of which recommended appointing a Cuba transition coordinator, which Bush did in September 2005.

What are the provisions of CAFC's 2006 report?

The report calls for an $80 million "Cuban Fund for a Democratic Future" -- a small increase from the initial report's $57 million -- to support independent civil society on the island, fund university scholarships, and break the information blockade. Bush approved the fund on July 10, 2006, saying it would help the Cuban people in the transition from Castro's regime to "genuine democracy." While very similar to CAFA's initial recommendations, the updated report draws special attention to the so-called "Cuba-Venezuela axis," noting there are clear signs Cuba is using money from Venezuela to reactivate its networks in the hemisphere and plan a succession strategy.

In the Financial Times, Daniel Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue calls the update "more of a symbolic recommitment to democracy in Cuba than a new set of policies to implement regime change." Because Cuba is receiving substantive economic support from Venezuela, some experts say it may not have a strong incentive to push for an end to the U.S. embargo.

Will Raul Castro introduce significant changes in Cuba?

Most experts agree that Raul Castro will not introduce significant reforms in the near term. He has indicated a willingness to consider criticism of the Cuban system, however, and some believe he may introduce economic reforms that move Cuba toward a Chinese model, in which economic freedoms are introduced while the state retains a grip on political power. Raul has signaled he is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States. Brian Latell, formerly the top Cuba analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency and a researcher at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, says "there is a good chance that he will want better relations with the United States."