Welcome to Kosovo, the Next Failed State?

The poisonous impact of this whole episode on Serbian politics was underscored by the embassy attack in Belgrade. Although moderate Serb politicians, including President Boris Tadic, swiftly condemned the violence, even they now feel compelled to emphasize nationalist themes. Those who spearheaded the peaceful overthrow of Milosevic's murderous regime are now in danger of being accused of facilitating the country's dismemberment. And resentment over the forced relinquishment of Kosovo is bound to simmer for many years and stoke regional tension.

Another risk is that Kosova, the poorest region in Europe, will become a failed state and possibly a terrorist haven. Its economy would have stopped functioning long ago without life support from the United Nations, the European Union and the United States. Even if Kosovar officials were economic wizards, they would have a hard time meeting popular expectations, which have soared with independence. Moreover, the ethnic divide will likely intensify. The prospect of further violent clashes between Serbs and Albanians seems all too real, and Thaci's government may respond with ethnic cleansing.

Having recognized Kosova's independence with almost no public debate, Washington and its friends in Western Europe should be on their guard. Be careful what you wish for.

mkramer@fas.harvard.edu

Mark Kramer is director of Harvard University's Project on Cold War Studies and a senior fellow of Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.