Some Things Just Won't Change

Here's another good reason to be dubious about grandiose promises of foreign policy change: Bush himself has shifted course. After his wholesale repudiation of all things Clinton in his more ideologically charged first term, Bush moved to reorient his foreign policy along more traditional, realist lines, experts say. He has opened nuclear negotiations with North Korea, sought to repair frayed relations with key European allies, backed off from pressuring friendly Arab regimes such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia to democratize, and made a new diplomatic offer to Iran over its nuclear program. So far, he has resisted pressure to open a third war front by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

In the past year, Bush has even tried to reengage more seriously to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, getting back into just the sort of peace-processing for which he scorned Bill Clinton. Although Bush has been criticized from all sides for a lack of personal involvement until very late in his term, there's no sign from any of the remaining 2008 candidates that they disagree with his basic approach of trying to create a Palestinian state and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict once and for all: Obama's aides, for instance, make it clear that his pledge to talk to U.S. adversaries does not extend to Hamas, the militant Palestinian group that controls the Gaza Strip and stands in the way of a final settlement.

Dennis Ross, who handled Middle East peace negotiations for GOP and Democratic presidents and has offered advice to several of the presidential candidates, says that the next president could build upon the framework Bush creates in his final months. "The structure the administration has set up could make sense if you invest it with content," Ross said. "One of the great weaknesses of this administration has been they don't know how to implement."

Indeed, the basic line from all three would-be presidents and their top advisers is simply that they would do diplomacy better, work with allies more closely and generally execute foreign policy more effectively. Come to think of it, that's also what advocates of George W. Bush said eight years ago.

abramowitzm@washpost.com

Michael Abramowitz is a Washington Post White House reporter.