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8 Questions That Today's Primaries Could Answer
How badly will competition split the Democratic Party?


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3. Democrat Ron Klain was the most emphatic in arguing that a continuation of the race will not damage the party. "What I see are record numbers of donors giving to the candidate, record numbers of volunteers in both campaigns, and record numbers of voters participating," he wrote. "The Democratic Party's best minds and best leaders have never constructed a recruitment plan as successful for growing the party as the Clinton-Obama race has thus far."
Other Democrats generally agree with that, but worry that bad feelings could develop if Obama wins Texas or Ohio and Clinton continues to fight on. If Clinton kept going against overwhelming odds, one strategist said, the party could emerge divided.
"It will only split the party -- and it will split the party -- if it looks like the Clinton machine is trying to steal the nomination from a legitimate and electable African American candidate who played by the rules."
Democrats worry most about an alienated African American community if Obama does not become the nominee. But one strategist said the party may end up with many female voters unhappy if Clinton does not win.
Republicans hope the race continues. "It's not a matter of splitting the party as much as it is providing us on the GOP side of the aisle with talking points and ammunition for the fall campaign," wrote Republican Neil Newhouse. "While the length of the Democrats' race certainly has captured the attention and interest of the electorate, the longer this goes on, the better chance [John] McCain has in November."
What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state?
4. Superdelegates broke early for Clinton, giving her a substantial lead as the primaries and caucuses began. Now more are signing up with Obama.
"Superdelegates are breaking to Obama now and that will continue if he wins either Texas or Ohio," wrote Democratic strategist Steve Murphy, who was an adviser in Richardson's presidential campaign.
Other strategists predicted that a split decision in Ohio and Texas would slow that flow toward Obama, although Obama officials have said they have more superdelegates in the pipeline ready to roll out after today's contests, and one strategist said a big batch could be announced tomorrow.
There will be 796 of these delegates and they would much prefer that the voters determine the outcome of this race. The Obama campaign says these superdelegates should support whoever leads in pledged delegates, but the Democratic Party rules call for them to act independently. Most strategists say it would take an extraordinary development for them not to ratify the results from the primaries.
"Superdelegates as a group will not overturn the clear front-runner in popular vote and delegate count," noted Democratic strategist Donnie Fowler. "A 150-, 200-delegate lead going into the summer probably draws the line over which they will not cross."
Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base?
5. Clinton's Ohio campaign has been pitched directly to white working-class voters and holding them is the key to her winning the primary there. She has appealed to these voters by promising to be their champion as president, and some strategists believe it is working.
"I have been impressed by how HRC has held her numbers in Ohio, in a window where the free media couldn't have been worse," wrote one Democratic strategist who knows the Buckeye electorate intimately. "The pundits on TV constantly say that she has lost her demographic base. I don't believe that."




