By Valerie Strauss
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 5, 2008

A shrinking pool of younger students, a souring economy and rising tuition -- approaching $30,000 at several schools -- have resulted in a drop in applications at some Washington area private schools.

Several schools, including Edmund Burke in the District, Burgundy Farms Country Day in Alexandria and Green Acres in Rockville, are accepting applications past their deadlines. Others are rethinking the way they do business: Holton-Arms in Bethesda, for instance, is shifting resources to upper grades as the number of elementary school-age students in the region declines.

And as fears of a recession spread, other schools say they are slowing down tuition increases and looking for other ways to raise money.

"Everybody is looking at how to make things easier for their families," said Paula Carreiro, head of the Beauvoir School in the District. "It's a balancing act. Some schools are cutting programs, some are looking at class size and we are all looking for ways to generate revenue."

Some schools were reluctant to provide details about enrollment for the next school year. But Ron Goldblatt, executive director of the Association of Independent Maryland Schools, a nonprofit organization of 120 private schools across Maryland and the District, said about one-third of his group's members are seeing a "modest decline" in enrollment.

He said the last time such a dip occurred was almost 20 years ago.

One factor is purely demographic. Data provided by the National Association of Independent Schools, taken from U.S. Census figures, show that in key parts of the Washington area, the population of children ages 5 to 9 is declining, leaving fewer students for public and private schools.

In the District, the number of children 5 to 9 declined 13.4 percent between 2000 and 2007, from 35,385 to 30,633, and is projected to drop further between 2007 and 2012. In Montgomery County, a 3.5 percent decrease is forecast between 2007 and 2012; a 5 percent drop is projected for the same period in Fairfax County.

The economy also is playing a role. School officials say more parents are complaining about the price of a private school education, and more are seeking financial aid at a time when the cost of kindergarten -- $26,790 at Sidwell Friends School in the District, for example -- can be higher than the yearly $20,805 out-of-state tuition at the University of Maryland at College Park.

Or as the head of the national association said: Tuition may have reached the "breaking point."

"For many schools, we think we are there," said Patrick F. Bassett, president of the national group, a nonprofit organization of about 1,300 schools and associations, representing more than a half-million students.

At Sidwell Friends and Georgetown Day schools in the District, and at McLean School in Potomac, tuition will be $29,000 to $30,000 for 2008-09. Parents are asked to contribute more during the school year; tuition on average covers 84 percent of the cost of educating a student.

At St. Andrews Episcopal School in Potomac, tuition in 2003-04 was about $20,000, but families recently learned that 2008-09 tuition for high school students there will cost $29,960. (School officials told parents that the 6 percent increase over this year's tuition is the lowest jump in a decade.)

The 2006-07 tuition tab at St. Albans School in the District was $26,501 for a day student, $13,000 more than a decade earlier. This year it is $28,860. Schools say the tuition increases have been necessary because personnel costs continue to rise rapidly. And several say the percentage increase for the next school year will be the smallest in years.

Officials at independent schools, institutions supported mostly by tuition and independently governed by trustees, say that over time they worried about rising tuition but that people kept coming.

"Historically, there is no reason to believe that there will be a breaking price point," Goldblatt said. "We worried when the price hit $9,000 to $10,000. Fifteen was another point, then $18,000, $20,000. Now it's $30,000. This has been an elastic market."

However, he said, changing demographics are affecting the dynamic.

Susanna A. Jones, head of the Holton-Arms School for girls, referred to the demographic decline in an e-mail she sent Feb. 15 to lower-school parents, some of whom had become upset with plans to shift resources. Jones told parents that she wanted to consolidate resources in the lower school -- increase class size slightly -- and redistribute them in the upper school, "where demand is high" and where "the current junior class represents the demographic peak of the baby boomlet."

Jones declined to comment.

Private schools increasingly have used financial assistance to bring economic and racial diversity to the student body. But as the economy slows, officials are having to provide more aid. Even families with children enrolled are seeking additional help.

The 84 schools in the Association of Independent Schools of Greater Washington -- institutions in the District, Northern Virginia and the Maryland suburbs -- collectively spent about $37 million for financial aid in 2001-02 and more than doubled that to about $76 million for this year, according to data provided by the organization.

The number of schools facing a decline in enrollment is small. But Bassett said his organization is working with struggling schools to reengineer finances and institute new discipline. Some schools are freezing hiring and ensuring that new programs are offset with the retirement of old ones. Some schools are cutting back programs and operating joint foreign language programs with other schools, officials said.

And they are looking for new ways to raise revenue. Georgetown Preparatory School in North Bethesda struck a deal last year to raise revenue by leasing four acres on its campus to a developer. The school will get $888 million over the course of the 99-year lease.

"Schools are going to have to think out of the box from now on," Bassett said. "How do you exploit the capital you have? Schools have physical capital, and they have intellectual capital, and they have social capital. . . . The future will be [operating] 24-7."