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U.S., China Resigned to Taiwan Vote
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The referendum will have little practical effect, experts pointed out. The United Nations has already rebuffed efforts by Chen's government to gain recognition of the name Taiwan when it takes part in U.N. activities. Taiwan is not a U.N. member; it will not be admitted to the United Nations under any name, the experts said.
But in the struggle over Taiwan, language and symbols have long been important tools. Even though it opposes Chen's referendum, for instance, the opposition Nationalist Party proposed its own referendum measure for March 22, asking whether Taiwan should apply for U.N. membership as the Republic of China or under any name at all.
The Nationalist proposal was a political gesture aimed at Taiwan's voters, a party official acknowledged, and not intended to imply that such a referendum was a good idea. The proposal grew from concerns that people might view the party as insufficiently Taiwanese, harming its presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, he said. Since then, the party has suggested it may call on voters to boycott any referendum, including its own. A formal announcement on that is due next week.
It is too late to remove the Nationalist measure from the ballot now, and both questions are all but certain to be on the ballot no matter how they are viewed in Washington and Beijing, according to Philip Yang, a political scientist at National Taiwan University.
The proposals are likely to gain little support, he said, because the Taiwanese public has grown weary of Chen's confrontational style and the sense of crisis he has promoted in relations with China. Two unrelated referendum issues that the government initiated in conjunction with Taiwan's Jan. 12 legislative elections failed decisively, he noted, "proving that kind of strategy is not really useful anymore."
The Nationalists and their allies won a decisive victory in the legislative vote, leading to predictions that Ma is headed for a win over the candidate from Chen's Democratic Progressive Party, Frank Hsieh. That would be good news in Beijing and Washington, where officials hope Ma's pragmatic views would lower tensions and smooth the way for better relations across the strait.
Special correspondent Jane Rickards in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report.
