Hoping the Pool Doesn't Get Deeper

In the 10 days before the NCAA tournament's bracket is unveiled, fans of Maryland and Virginia Tech will feverishly root for their respective teams to win a few more games in hopes of earning one of the 34 at-large berths. But the postseason fate of both teams also could hinge on the outcome of conference tournaments across the country, meaning Terrapins and Hokies fans will take on unusual rooting interests and become short-time cheerleaders for some well-regarded regular season champions from less-heralded conferences.

"So much of getting at-large berths has to do with what is going on around the country, who is winning conference tournaments," said Illinois State Coach Tim Jankovich, whose team is competing with Maryland and Virginia Tech for one of the final at-large berths. "If there are a number of teams that win their tournaments that wouldn't otherwise get in, then the pool of at-large candidates grows. Is there anything more stressful than getting totally involved in something you have no control over?"

Jankovich said he will try not to pay attention to results across the country, but if the Redbirds don't advance deep in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, his team quickly will become a "cheerleader for other teams." And if they don't make runs in next week's ACC tournament, both Maryland (18-12) and Virginia Tech (18-11) also will be relegated to rooting for favorites in other tournaments and sweating out the final days before March 16, when the 65-team bracket is unveiled.

An analysis of the tournament field revealed that at least 19 teams remain in contention for the final nine at-large spots. But the number of open slots will diminish if some regular season champions fail to win their conference tournaments because the tournament champions will earn the automatic berths and the regular season champions likely will take at-large slots from the "bubble" teams.

Consider the Atlantic 10, which as of now is expected to send two teams, Xavier and Massachusetts, to the NCAA tournament. The conference also is laden with potential spoilers -- Saint Joseph's, Temple and Charlotte -- that could get hot, win the conference tournament to claim the automatic berth and, in turn, take an at-large berth away from a bubble team.

It also is important for Virginia Tech and Maryland fans to keep an eye on the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. Virginia Commonwealth is a strong at-large candidate if it does not win the event, which begins tomorrow, but George Mason has the ability to claim the automatic berth, potentially making bracket life miserable for the Hokies or Terrapins.

The Missouri Valley could prove a particular problem. Drake almost certainly has secured an at-large berth, and Illinois State can make a strong case for consideration as well. But Drake has revealed some vulnerability of late, losing three of its last six games, providing more hope for teams such as Creighton and Southern Illinois, whose only chance to make the NCAA tournament likely rests on winning the conference tournament.

"This year, every game you look at could be double overtime, triple overtime," Missouri State Coach Barry Hinson said. "You could look up at [the final] on Sunday and say, 'Where did those two teams come from?' It has been that type of year in the Valley."

The West Coast Conference has been dominated much of the season by Saint Mary's and Gonzaga, two teams that likely will earn at-large berths if they don't win the conference tournament. But third-place San Diego's chances of winning are bolstered because the school is hosting the event.

In the Horizon Conference, only Butler is worthy of an at-large berth, and the setup of the conference tournament gives the regular season champion a significant advantage. Butler has a bye until the semifinals and, if the Bulldogs win, they will host the championship game.

In the Mountain West Conference, Brigham Young and Nevada-Las Vegas are well positioned to make the NCAA tournament field. New Mexico needs to make a run in the tournament to enhance its at-large chances and could steal a slot from another bubble team if it wins the event. But UNLV could have an edge because it is hosting the conference tournament. By staging the tournament at a conference school's arena, "there is not any kind of balance or anything fair for any of the other teams in the league," New Mexico Coach Steve Alford said. "When all of the sudden you get home games, that is a big difference."

Maryland and Virginia Tech fans also will be rooting for strong regular season champions of three smaller conferences: Davidson of the Southern Conference, South Alabama of the Sun Belt and Kent State of the Mid-American Conference. All three have reasonable chances to earn at-large berths if they don't win their respective conference tournaments.

Davidson is a heavy favorite in the Southern Conference tournament, but South Alabama will be tested by Western Kentucky and Kent State could face challenges from Akron or Ohio.

Jankovich, the Illinois State coach, said he would feel comfortable on Selection Sunday only if his team wins the Missouri Valley tournament. With any other outcome, he faces the same fate as fans in College Park and Blacksburg, Va.: rooting, waiting and hoping.

"When the music stops, somebody does not get to sit down," Jankovich said. "It's like musical chairs."