Spain's Voters at Loggerheads
Conservatives Seek to Reverse '04 Socialist Win

By John Ward Anderson
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, March 9, 2008

MADRID -- Four years ago Tuesday, Islamic extremists detonated 10 bombs aboard four commuter trains in Madrid, killing 191 people in Spain's worst-ever terrorist attack. Coming three days before national elections, the explosions sparked a surprise voter backlash against the sitting conservative government, which botched its response to the terrorists and was unexpectedly thrown out of office.

Today, the vanquished Popular Party and its leader, Mariano Rajoy, still believe that they were robbed of the election and that the leader of the victorious Socialist Workers' Party, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, is an accidental prime minister who lacks legitimacy. Accidental or not, Zapatero embarked on a four-year program to liberalize divorce, marriage and other social laws, an agenda that deeply divided the country and prompted bitter clashes with the Catholic Church, one of Spain's most powerful institutions.

On Sunday, Spanish voters return to the polls after an acrimonious parliamentary election campaign dominated by those same social issues, disputes over immigration and the flagging Spanish economy, and complaints about the Catholic Church meddling in politics. Zapatero and Rajoy, who launched bitter personal attacks and accused each other of lying during the campaign, are both seeking a verdict from voters on whether the 2004 result was a mistake.

The themes and tenor of the campaign illustrated the intense polarization and distrust between young, modern secularists, who lean toward the Socialist Workers' Party, and older, more traditionalist churchgoers, who tend to favor the Popular Party. Many voters believe that if the Popular Party returns to power, it could work to overturn the Socialist legacy of laws legalizing same-sex marriage, making divorce easier and faster, reducing the role of religion in public education and strengthening gender equality.

"There's an element of fear-mongering" by the Socialists to make sure their supporters get out and cast ballots, especially younger, first-time voters who are more likely to abstain, said Charles Powell, a history professor at Madrid's San Pablo University CEU.

Although the party's agenda probably would not be dismantled, Socialist voters fear that "there are not going to be any advances" if the Popular Party is elected and that laws governing abortion, adoption by gay couples and equality for women "will be applied in restrictive ways," said Soledad Gallego-Díaz, a senior editor and columnist at the newspaper El País.

Polls suggest that neither party will win an outright majority in the 350-seat lower house, the Congress of Deputies, meaning whoever wins will have to fashion a working coalition with smaller, regional parties. Recent polls give the Socialists about a four-point edge, but many analysts say turnout will be decisive.

Four years ago, Zapatero capitalized on opposition to Spain's role in Iraq and voter anger that the conservative government immediately blamed the Madrid attacks on the Basque separatist group ETA, ignoring evidence that Islamic extremists were behind the bombings. Those two issues motivated younger voters, analysts said, pushing turnout to 75 percent and driving Zapatero's Socialists over the top.

Within weeks of his selection as prime minister, Zapatero announced the withdrawal of Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq.

Although the issue of terrorism took a back seat in this year's campaign, the spotlight returned to it Friday after a former Socialist city councilman was shot execution-style in Arrasate, a town in the Basque region. Zapatero and Rajoy called off the rest of their national campaigns and canceled their parties' final rallies -- which are typically festive affairs -- out of respect for the assassinated man, Isa¿as Carrasco, 42. The government blamed ETA for the killing.

Zapatero engaged in high-risk negotiations with ETA earlier in his term, but the peace bid backfired when the group set off a bomb in a parking garage at Madrid's international airport in December 2006, killing two people. The Popular Party savaged Zapatero, accusing him of being naive for bargaining with terrorists, even though the conservative party had also negotiated with ETA when it was in power.

The charge was picked up by Catholic leaders during a massive rally in Madrid about two months ago that was addressed by Pope Benedict XVI in a video link from the Vatican. During that gathering, several cardinals also launched attacks against the Socialist government for legalizing gay marriages, liberalizing divorce laws and reducing religious instruction in schools.

The government accused the church of meddling in electoral politics. Several analysts said the church demonstration may have backfired. Although the vast majority of Spaniards are Catholic, polls show that the country's 45 million people are increasingly straying from the church's teachings. Abortions and divorce are rising, while church attendance and family size are shrinking. Although the Popular Party probably doesn't mind the church's tacit support, some analysts say, the nearly explicit embrace of the party may hurt it more than help it. "When you have such an active church in the state, it mobilizes the left," said Socialist leader Elena Valenciano.

"The Socialists are using this to their advantage by painting the PP as a clericalist, ultra-reactionary party, with some success," Powell said.

Two key issues that dovetailed to the Popular Party's advantage in the campaign were immigration and the economy. Spain has enjoyed 14 years of rapid economic growth, which coincided with a large increase in immigrants, many of whom work in the construction industry. But starting last year, the housing industry collapsed and credit tightened. Now unemployment is rising faster than anywhere else in Europe, and inflation is increasing.

Rajoy, 52, blasted Zapatero, 47, for granting amnesty to 600,000 illegal immigrants in 2005. The Popular Party leader argued that an uncontrolled influx of foreigners had led to higher crime, overcrowded schools, a lack of affordable housing, higher unemployment for Spaniards and strains on the country's health-care system. If elected, Rajoy said, he would require immigrants to sign an "integration contract" under which they would agree to obey the law, learn Spanish, abide by Spain's customs and remain employed, or else they could be sent home.

"We're saying, 'Great, welcome, you have exactly the same opportunities and rights as Spaniards, but in exchange we want you to obey the law,' " said Gustavo de Aristegui, a senior Popular Party official.

Although the Socialist Workers' Party called the plan racist and xenophobic, polls showed that many of the party's supporters approve of it.

Both parties have meanwhile engaged in economic one-upmanship, promising deep tax cuts, massive affordable housing construction and jobs programs for millions.

In one of the more curious promises, the Socialists vowed to plant 45 million trees during their administration, about one for each resident of the country. The Popular Party countered by promising to plant 500 million trees in four years, or about 238 per minute.