Population Shift Sends Universities Scrambling

Many schools, accustomed to annual increases in the number of high school graduates, are retooling recruitment efforts to focus on states where that population will keep rising.

Although the outlook varies from state to state, the West is projected to have the highest percentage growth, with the Midwest and Northeast experiencing declines. The South is looking at mixed results, according to projections.

At a recent fair for college admissions officers in Pittsburgh, the topic on everyone's lips was increasing out-of-state recruitment, some participants said. Certain states are known to be fertile ground for students wanting to leave. Others are not.

Virginia, for example, is known for retaining most of its high school graduates. According to the latest information from the nonprofit National Center for Higher Education Management systems, Virginia in 2004 lost 11,503 high school graduates but brought in 15,748 from out of state for a net gain of 4,245.

Maryland has the opposite reputation. Data showed that in 2004 the state lost 15,685 high school graduates and imported 9,731 for a loss of 6,954.

There are no listed data for the District.

Such statistics aggravate C. Dan Mote, president of the University of Maryland at College Park. "The state has not promulgated the fact that it has a world-class university," he said, adding that Maryland officials must improve recruitment in and out of state.

Educators and administrators say that as the student population changes, they will face a range of complicated challenges that go to the heart of the academic mission of higher education institutions and the issue of affordability. Efforts have begun to introduce the notion of college preparation to middle school students and students who traditionally would not have sought out college, Ward said, but more needs to be done to improve K-12 school systems from which many of the students will come.

The cost of college also will require a new collaborative financial aid system that takes into account cultural differences toward borrowing and spending patterns, Ward said.

Non-Hispanic white families are the most likely to borrow money for college, but that is the population that will experience the biggest decline. Hispanic families traditionally have fewer resources to spend and are more averse to borrowing, Ward said.

At Bates College in Lewiston, Maine, President Elaine Tuttle Hansen said the school has started to boost its aid budget by a few percentage points to "keep ahead" of the trend. Out of an $83 million budget, she said, $18 million went this year for financial aid.

Officials in the State University of New York, the public higher education system with the more campuses than any other state's, 64, and more than 427,000 students, are focusing their recruitment on population growth areas, said Kitty McCarthy, assistant vice chairman for enrollment marketing.

Catholic University is in its third year of using specific mail and e-mail campaigns to attract new prospective students, and has started a mail campaign to selected parents, said Victor Nakas, associate vice president for public affairs. George Washington University has built regional admissions offices in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston and northern New Jersey, and school officials are spending more time recruiting overseas, said Kathryn M. Napper, executive dean for undergraduate admissions.

American University officials are devising strategies to increase the school's exposure in population growth areas including Arizona, spokeswoman Maralee Csellar said.

Meanwhile, governors in five Northeastern states are advancing plans to target scholarships to keep in-state students at home, and some state legislatures are spending more -- or proposing an increase in funds -- for public institutions of higher education so they can stay attractive.

"This is all going to be huge for schools in a planning and financial sense," said Hansen, the Bates president. "But we also have to look upon it as an opportunity."